Weather Update: Heavy rains coming for Saturday night into Sunday
We continue to watch model trends regarding the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill. My latest Joestradamus piece examined this earlier today and now we are following that up with the GFS model and what it shows this afternoon. First off the total accumulated precip map through Monday evening showers a solid 2 to 3 inches of rain from Southeast Pennsylvania northeastward to Long Island and then amounts taper off somewhat when you head north and west. While im not questioning the idea of 2 to 3 inches of rain but it is still too early to determine whether it is going to wind up exactly as shown or whether it will be further north or further south. But we do think there will be a decent rainfall from this. The other issue is whether this will be more convective in nature out of severe thunderstorms or will it be more widespread.
The gfs is also much faster than the European was during the overnight. Judging by the latest position of the remnants, it isn’t too far fetched that the GFS might be right in speeding things up a bit. This would mean that much of Saturday daytime should be dry with rain arriving by evening. By Sunday morning the structure of the isobars implies a warm front with a wave in Southeast Pennsylvania. I think the dynamics are there for severe weather as well under this situation for somebody…ample tropical moisture will be available.
During Sunday morning the axis of the rain shifts northeast and the models centers heavy precip over New York City east to Long Island and Southern Connecticut. Also if this is correct the bulk of the rain could be over with by late morning in areas west of NYC and early afternoon to the east. Given that we are dealing with tropical remnants we need to be a little careful regarding total rains because often times in these instances models tend to underperform on amounts. We will continue to monitor this as we head into Friday and the weekend.
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Take a look around. Weather radars from various locations are real time and link to the National Weather Service. On each of the local pages you will find scrolling rss feeds in real time with all National Weather Service advisories, watches, and warnings. During the winter months there are 2 snowstorm pages to keep handy. The first is the snowforecasts page which has the latest National Weather Service updated snowfall forecast maps which update in real time. The second is my joesnowforecasts page which has my forecast maps and discussion on what to expect. For short range weather outlooks I have 3 pages. Joesforecast which takes the short term view including week ahead and weekend outlooks. 2 other pages tackle the models and what they have to tell us. The GFS and the popular European model which has a strong performance record overall especially when it comes to east coast winter storms. Current