Thunderstorm Discussion: June 11 & June 13

There have been many questions regarding the thunderstorm threat on Thursday, June 11. Here are the current models and what they are currently saying:

HRRR 1:30 PM Thursday

The 12z NAM is still coming up with the possibility of super cells, but I really don’t see this happening.

There are several factors that need to be put into the thunderstorm threat tomorrow:

  1. How much sunshine is there going to be in the AM

  2. How high are the dew points and the humidity

  3. How much will the sun make the air unstable

All of these factors need to be put into the forecast for thunderstorms and how strong they will be. As you see above, right now the HRRR does not really show too much activity. Then again, it only goes up to 1:30 PM in the picture above, so we will have to wait and see what it does later in the afternoon and evening!

Now… the next chance of thunderstorms comes on Saturday. Let’s take it one day at a time, though, and I’ll just show the 12z NAM for the time 00z on Saturday. Very interesting look towards our west into western Pennsylvania.

Stay tuned for updates!

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