Southern New England Post-Winter Storm analysis!

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(featured picture: CT River valley temperature gradient)


Post storm analysis for Southern New England:


It was an icy morning here in Southern New England, with higher than expected icing totals across much of the area. In my previous forecast, I forecasted a coating to <.1” of ice for most of the area. That has since been proven to be much too low. Also, I predicted 3-5” for a large portion of CT. That was proven too high. So, what went wrong?

What happened in this storm was that it took a more western track over the Appalachians, bringing in warmer air aloft much faster than previously anticipated. Instead of a changeover happening at around 10pm like forecasted, some places saw a change over at around 7 or 8 pm! This meant that there were rising freezing rain totals and dropping snow totals. Below is a sampling some of the totals recorded across the region:



(At my house, the grand total was 1” of snow and about .3” of ice)


As you can see here, some places in Northern and Eastern Connecticut and Massachusetts got hammered with ice. In fact, as I write this, some temperatures in the Connecticut River valley have yet to get above freezing, while places miles away are in the 40s and 50s as previously predicted! Incredible right?!

This ice has caused incredible problems around the regions with countless accidents and spinouts. So when ice and snow hits, DRIVE SLOWLY! Or, just don’t go out at all until the snow melts!

Now, with all the attention turning away from ice and snow, the attention turns to later today. It will be very windy across the region today, especially around SE Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Not only that, but there will also be a line of thunderstorms that will be coming through from west to east at around 2:30-3pm. These storms could be severe, but they will DEFINITELY have heavy rain. Totals for rain can be around 1”, meaning that this rain will be coming down very hard at times. This also means flooding could be a concern. So, my word of advice is to clear all of your storm drains, and make areas for water to run off. Basement flooding could be a concern because of the combination of ice, snowpack and frozen ground, so water needs somewhere to go. Make sure you make places for it to go! This rain should finally clear out no later than 6 for CT and maybe 7 for Massachusetts and Rhode Island!

SPC Storm prediction outlook for today:


Hopefully this was informative and helpful to prepare you for this afternoon! Thanks for reading!


-Ethan, @CTforecasting

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