Sneak peek ahead and 7 day forecast
Good sunday to all ,
A Backdoor cold front is pushing through the northern mid-atlantic / northeast this morning.
As a result showers have broken out in CT , and the lower hudson valley and SE MA.
A cold front situated right now just entering the most western portions of our region will swing through this eve with showers & storms.
Ahead of the cold front there will be heating and some destabilization of the atmosphere , however, at this time the instability will be marginal at best.
The lack of any moderate to strong wind shear and very weak mid level lapse rates,
will result in the majority of storms that do develop to remain below severe levels , however , some isolated strong storms are possible this eve.
mainly in the interior of NY , MA , CT
The latest hi-res NAM model shows this potential for later this afternoon/evening.
We turn the corner going into the work week on a hot and humid note as temps and humidity provide what should be the 2nd mini heat wave of summer 2015.
The peak of the heat appears to be wed/thurs as some urban areas from camden to newark new jersey have the potential for 95-100 degree heat.
This heat wave similar to the one last weekend will not be long lasting as there are strong signals via observations and model guidance of a strong deep trough by very early following week.
With the convection in the pacific around 180 longitude (dateline) building and intensifying the trough in the east makes perfect sense.
The focus of the last few days have been the potential development of tropical trouble forming off the waters of the SE coast.
The tropical idea this year in the atlantic has a focus of development very possible close to and along the shores due to the very warm ocean waters just offshore.
With very cold waters in the northern atlantic and cool waters in general over the rest of the atlantic, the warm waters have been pushed and confined to the western atlantic.
This is the process of a +AMO converting into a cold AMO. As troughs in the east swing thru in the summer they leave fronts behind.
These fronts and pressures lower in area and what you have is tons of convergence. what may look like a very weak front is sitting over ocean temps 85 degrees.
So far we have seen 3 tracks with potential development , one just offshore and producing a cat 1 hurricane , one track keeps it inland (hybrid) type system , and one puts it in the middle.
The area from the NE gulf and just off the SE coast needs to be monitored.
Bottomline is we need to watch these troughs come through and try to pick up potential disturbances and bring them up the coast.
The New York 7 day forecast ,its hot and humid
Meteorologist Steve Garry