Severe Weather Threat: Thursday
Well, I guess we just cannot get one day of full sunshine in so far this week. This issue continues into Thursday with a better chance at seeing more widespread showers and storms, primarily Thursday night into Friday morning. There is also a better chance of severe storms than there was Monday, Tuesday, & Wednesday. So, as usual, we’ll go through the different models. The thing you will find the most common is that all three models that I’m about to show you shows strong storms.
NAM Discussion: So you see the NAM has most of the storm activity very early on Friday morning. The timing isn’t too different from other models, but it still shows some pretty strong storms coming through (not so much for Long Island, though).
WRF-NMM Discussion: The WRF model has a similar concept and the same strength to the storms as the NAM, however, it does show some stronger activity than the NAM for you Long Islanders :)
RPM Discussion: This shows the most interesting things, such as the bow echo I outlined above at 7:30 PM Thursday night. The radar will not look exactly like this, but it does say there could be damaging winds.
CONCLUSION: The daytime Thursday will not be bad at all. Some sunshine, though, will help fuel the air for Thursday night’s storms. Things to watch in any severe storms are: damaging winds, flooding/heavy rains, frequent lightning. Start keeping an eye to the sky after 4PM and throughout the night. Watch the radar and stay tuned to the latest updates. I’ll leave you with a look at the current NWS SPC thunderstorm outlook and the NAM model CAPE values.
— Jonathon Rocco