Rain to Bring Welcome Relief to Drought Stricken Region
Updated: 0138z/21:38/9:38pm
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FIRST OFF, THANK YOU TO ALL who have and continue to support us We attended the Best of Westchester Party last night, and it was quite an experience! Here is the plaque we received for the award:
ANYWAYS…I will not give a forecast here because Dillon has done that, but I did want to spend some time talking about our FIRST significant prolonged rain event since May 30th. It is much needed
The latest US Drought Monitor Center update shows little change for the better since last weeks update, and if anything even worse as moderate drought has extended across more of NY, NJ, and PA, and Severe drought has extended further into MA.
With the latest update, an estimated 35.2 million people are in drought areas currently. Even with the numerous thunderstorms we have had lately, the conditions do not get better. This is due to a couple of reasons:
- The thunderstorms have produced copious amounts of rainfall in a short amount of time and the ground has not been able to soak it all up, so most of it runs off
- It has been quite hot recently and sunny, so there has been a good amount of evaporation, and quickly too. Less chance for the ground to soak it all up.
Some areas are 12″ in deficit since the start of the year, so a lot of rain is needed to bring these regions to normal:
Unfortunately, droughts never end with a month of steady solid soaking rain like we would like them too. Instead they generally end, or get busted by big events that cause flooding and a lot of rain in a short amount of time. That is just what this event will be.
A low is currently deepening and forming off the coast of Jersey with a coastal trough as well, and this, combined with a good chunk of nrg will form our storm tonight through tomorrow as the low deepens and heads ENE into the Atlantic. This would be the PERFECT winter storm setup had we had the cold
With the deepening low we also have an intense plume of moisture, with PWAT values well over 2″ across the region, partially thanks to the SW flow around the subtropical high sitting in the Atlantic. This will make for a very tropical feel, and provide fuel to support heavy rains tonight through tomorrow morning.
With a deepening low, very good dynamics (energy), and good frontogenesis, we can expect prolonged heavy rains. The models still waver on exact placement, but agree that whoever gets the rain will be getting between 1.5-3.5″+ with locally higher amounts. I am worried about the rush hour tomorrow morning, as the rain could be heaviest during that time period.
The rain should move out in the early afternoon with a possibility of lingering showers. The heat will be way down tomorrow as well, with highs in the high 70’s.
I think that is it, I hope everybody enjoys the rain, we REALLY need it! UNFORTUNATELY, the places hit hardest in Southern New England, around N Boston and S ME/NH will not get much from this system, but every bit counts. Northern NJ will benefit a lot from this, as will parts of PA, and our area.
NWSNY has issued a flash flood watch for the event, so please watch for areas that could be prone to flooding in the morning.
Enjoy the night!
Forecaster: Remy M.
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