NoVa’s Week Ahead and More Danny?

Next week seems mostly dry around the NoVa area, pardon rain on Monday and Thursday. For only two days of rain, the totals aren’t unimpressive, but they aren’t yet impressive. Both the CMC (GEM) and GFS keep the southeast section of NoVa as .75″ or more, and for the most part, it is the more northwest, the drier. Most models I’ve seen keep the winds generally N-NW, except for Wednesday/Thursday, where the winds shift to coming from the south. These days are also forecasted to be the hottest, with Thursday seemingly the hottest.

Again regarding rains, most models keep us away from the heavy rains. The potential Danny is not of much concern regarding heavy rains (see section below) since it appears like the low may be out too see. There seems to be no big threat next week, since winds wont be super favorable to damaging winds and any upper level shear will snuff out most chances for significant, if any, hail.

Here are the rainfall accumulation maps for the next week. GFS on the left, GEM on the right.gfs_apcpn_us_28gem_apcpn_us_28

The next image is of 4 model runs (ECMWF, GEM, NAVGEM and GFS) on Saturday. 12z is 7 AM Saturday and 18z is 1 PM Saturday. The NAVGEM has the strongest storm at that time, with the ECMWF showing a low out there, just not as strong. The GFS and GEM show nothing out at sea, but they both show lows around South Carolina.


More updates on the potential TS will come later, as well as any potential sever outbreaks.

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