Long Range Outlook: Cool-Warm-Cool

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Updated: 2331z/19:30/7:31pm

Going to take a moment to continue from our last discussion on here about the lack of signals for any real “heat” in the eastern US for the summer…THIS CONTINUES! I gotta say, still not seeing any real signals for prolonged hot, muggy heat that some enjoy! I personally do not enjoy it…but, to those who do…not seeing any signals for that. Last time I talked about what we need to GET that, today I am going to talk about what I see coming…

The models continue to show a very progressive northern stream, or the northern jet stream which generally, this time of year, flows through southern Canada keeping the cool wx to the north of us and allowing the heat to building. With the progressive stream that the models show we will continue to go through periods of weather 3-5/4-7 days long of cold-warm/wet-dry (although overall we have stayed pretty dry). Combined with the still very positive PDO, which promotes troughing in the E and blocking in the W, this pattern gets amplified in terms of the changes from cool-warm to cold-hot. SO…going through the next several weeks, and really through July, It will continue to be a back and forth.

THAT ALL SAID – there will be a light at the end of the tunnel – eventually. Take a look at the PDO signature in the Pacific on the 23rd verses the 1st of this month.

h5 Analysis comparison4h5 Analysis comparison3

The PDO has degraded immensely based on the SSTA Signatures present in the Pacific! NO longer do we see the near perfect horseshoe of cold SST’s surrounded by warm SST’s like in the June 1 picture! The PDO is slowly going negative, and a negative PDO is the OPPOSITE of a +PDO, promoting troughing on the W coast and RIDGING/BLOCKING on the East Coast, which generally means = HEAT.  The question is, when does the PDO go -? Likely not for many months. With that in mind…this is what I am seeing for warm/cool spells in the next several weeks through July.

Warm: Now – July 1 some chances of rain.

Cool: July 1-8, 3 or 4 rain chances

Warm: July 9-16, 2 or 3 rain chances, potential for hot weather 12-15th.

Cool: July 17 – 21, 2 or 3 rain chances.

Warm: July 22 – 25, mainly dry.

Cool: July 26-29, 1 or 2 rain chances

Warm: July 30-early August. 1 or 2 rain chances in the beginning of that period.

So that is a potential outlook….exact dates will vary, but you can see the warm-cool-warm back and forth, and dryness continues. FUN FACT: we are 6-8″ below normal for precipitation since January 1st 2016. VERY DRY!

OK…I think that is it for now! Enjoy the weekend! Spread the news about us please!

Forecaster: Remy M.

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