LIVE BLOG: End Of The Week Snow, Big Inland Totals?
I will continue updating this blog as new information becomes available.
A messy system is headed our way Thur-Fri. A burst of snow before transitioning to a wintry mix/rain could produce accumulating snow in Philadelphia, DC & Boston. Inland areas have the best chance of significant snowfall.
Quick Update: Afternoon EURO supports my earlier thinking that northern Maryland, Philadelphia, NYC and SNE start with a thump of snow. Very minor accumulations possible on grassy surfaces in these areas. No change to the earlier forecast (below).
The latest EURO and GFS ensembles are in. Before we take a look at those, I’d like to note the overnight EURO had much colder air aloft, increasing snow totals and its extent south and east as expected from the first blog entry.
Northern Maryland –> Philly –> Southern New England could be looking at a slushy 1-2″ with the initial thump of snow before precipitation becomes mixed, eventually turning to all rain.
The EURO EPS and GEFS (Ensembles of EURO and GFS) are in good agreement the surface low will track near, or just off the NJ coast. This leads to good model consensus of where the heaviest axis of snow will setup (inland):
At the end of the day, we need to remember it’s November. Lot’s of snow will fall, but determining how much of that sticks will be very tricky. At the moment I am thinking this will be a 1-3″ event for coastal areas and 3-6″ w/ locally higher totals inland. Any storm capable of bringing snow to Philadelphia and Southern New England in early November has very high upside and high bust potential so stay updated.
Stay tuned for a snow map later today or early tomorrow.
Winter weather is off to a fast paced start and it’s only early November. Rain and snow will continue moving through the region overnight, with squall lines in PA/NY tomorrow afternoon. Tonight’s storm will remain mostly rain besides extreme western PA, NY and northwestern New England due to abundant warm air convection.
The next threat comes Thursday evening through Friday. A low pressure system is expected to track near the NJ coast, bringing potentially significant snow to inland locations.
The entire region could see flakes, but accumulation will be tough along the coast. As Bernie Rayno says, never trust a closed upper level low as they can create their own cold air. For this reason I am leaning towards a colder solution than models are currently showing. The upper level low will track through Maryland and into southern New England. A heavy thump of snow on the front-end could bring flakes as far south as Philadelphia:
I currently like the EURO Kuchera snow map:
This does not include accumulating sleet and freezing rain which will be an issue to discuss next time. Do not let your guard down, significant icing is possible in central PA and western Maryland.