There are several issues going forward for the rest of this week and we may have to consider the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico as at least a moisture source for the next weather system that will approach us on Thursday into Friday. Why do we think this? Well if we look at the overall flow pattern across the Untied States we can see that there is a very fast flow pattern across the US north of 35 north latitude. We mentioned this a few days ago in prior posts and that the fast flow would bring weather systems through every few days.

You have the fast flow to the north. Think of it like an entrance ramp on a highway. The arrow from Louisiana northward is the entrance ramp. It is the backside of the upper ridge that is off the southeast coast that opens the door for that gulf mositure to move northeast and get involved with whatever northern system is there waiting to carry it along. We will have that with a cold front that will approach late this week. It is speculative at this point but it is possible that some of that moisture from whatever tropical system we wind up with, gets up here and enhances rain and thunderstorms for Thursday into Friday.

This pattern of strong westerlies north of 35 north has several implications. First is the tropical system mentioned earlier. The second is the continuation of weather fronts coming through every few days. The third is that it cant get hot around here outside of the odd day or two where it gets very warm or almost hot…but as for 5 day plus heatwaves that is just not going to happen here in the northeast with a strong get that runs west to east. There is no chance for heat to build except under the southeast ridge. Notice on the 144 and 168 hour upper air maps that we have no change in this pattern through the weekend and one strong shortwave after another just continues to move along in the flow.

Now lets go back to the tropical system. Thanks to TROPICAL TIDBITS for these maps. This is the GFDL model which is a hurricane forecast model. This is for Thursday night as it has what is left of whatever this winds up being….moving across Northern Pennsylvania and then east through Southern New England as a pretty well defined extratropical low. Im not sure i believe the intensity here being shown but with a front approaching on Thursday it certainly adds to the argument that showers and thunderstorms could wind up being enhanced by this tropical system. We will of course keep our eyes on this in future runs,.


Leave a Reply