By Meteorologist Joe Cioffi

Day runs are coming in and the gfs has shifted a little further north with the axis of heavy rains from the overnight runs. This seems to make sense as per the NAM discussion from earlier today. There are two issues with regards to rainfall. Since there will be an intact low center of some kind or another, there should be some solid overrunning rains to the north and northwest of the track while heavy thunderstorms..possibly severe will be in areas that get warm sectored which will make the rain more convective but put down some 3 inch plus totals in some areas.

The gfs model has an axis of heavy precip across eastern Pennsylvania northeast to about NYC with 2 to 3 inch rains. What has to be watched is that sometimes with these tropical systems the rain can be enhanced considerably in elevated areas of NW New Jersey back to the Poconos. This needs to be considered and watched carefully. Amounts do tail off some in South Jersey and over Eastern Long Island and Connecticut but 1 inch plus amounts are shown as well in most of those areas.

Sunday afternoon improvement begins as most of the coast is dry with some showers developing in Pennsylvania again which is probably being enhanced by an approaching cold front. Again to summarize im thinking 2 to 3 inch rains where it is heaviest…less..on the order 1 to 2 inches for most everyone else…and lesser amounts into NE Pennsylvania and perhaps northern Connecticut as well as northern pars of the Hudson Valley.

Saturday should be problem free and all outdoor activities should go off without a hitch. Just sunshine fading behind arriving clouds. And Monday should be bright and sunny with temperatures into the 80s. It is always supposed to be nice for Mother’s day and for Father’s day?? Oh Well what can you do!.. Thanks to TROPICAL TIDBITS for these maps.

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