by Meteorologist Joe Cioffi

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Given that the NAM model is not the only model by which we live by, I have taken a look at a slew of others regarding tomorrow’s severe weather threat. The potential absolutely is there. No question of that. Lately however it seems that storms just don’t seem to want to hold up to billing. Still I want to respect that the models are pointing to this and everything I looked at is saying strong to severe thunderstorms later Tuesday afternoon and evening.

The RGEM has a very impressive area for late in the afternoon with an obvious line moving through. I looked at a number of models and in terms of rainfall the average on all of them was under .50 inches so these storms are going to be moving to quick I think to cause anything substantial on the flooding end but one never knows. The main threat I think will be from potentially damaging winds and of course whether the atmosphere would be ripe for tornados but that is a very short term issue for tomorrow. The WRF joins the NAM with a less than impressive line of storms and in fact this model completely misses the boat with regards to New England down to NYC and focuses its attentions further west and south.

Below is the HRRR model for tormorrow morning 8am and you can see how it has its precip lined up with the cold front just nw of Western NY down to southern Michigan into Northwest Indiana. This model is ultra short range and doesn’t go any further than tomorrow morning at this particular time but I will update this later this evening. This is what it says the radar will look like tomorrow morning so we will see how well it lines up.

Visible Satellite pic below from late this afternoon across the Great Lakes shows arching thunderstorms under those bright white clouds tops. We will monitor the progress of this over the next 24 hours. In the meantime..check my NAM discussion on this…and also see the latest maps and risk area analysis with regards to severe weather risk for Tuesday.

Be sure to check the scrolling feeds on the local weather page for NY NJ and CT as well as the one for Southeast Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey.

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