JOE CIOFFI’S WEATHER FORECAST: BILL’S REMNANTS ON COURSE FOR 1-2″ RAINS
Everything regarding the remnants of Bill appear to be on schedule for rains for Saturday night and Sunday. Track of the actual surface feature has variations showing up from model to model. The European and the GFS have shifted further south with the overnight runs which puts the axis of heaviest rain over Central and Southern New Jersey and Southeast Pennsylvania while lighter rains prevail to the north. Often times as these systems take on non tropical characteristics the rain shield shifts northward to the northwest side of the low track which is what the NAM model has done and it takes a low much further north with the heaviest rain over Northern New Jersey, New York City and Long Island.
Sunday morning on the nam shows the worst of it with the heaviest rain in a comma shaped arch over NYC Northern New Jersey and Long Island. The other models are about 100 miles further south. All models suggest that the rain will arrive Saturday night and should be done for the most part by noon on Sunday…earlier south and west and a little later north and east.
By Sunday afternoon the low center is over Eastern Long Island with rain over Connecticut and Southern New England. Skies should begin to slowly clear out druring the mid or late afternoon with a nice sunny day setting up for Monday. We need to still resolve the final issue regarding track to see who gets the 1-2 inch rains. With regards to severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center puts a marginal risk of severe over our area. However this will be adjusted if the track winds up to be further south. I will be updating this during the afternoon as new models come out.
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