Hurricane Joaquin , What will be?
Good evening everyone ,
I think right now the best approach at this time is NOT to mention specific states with landfall. Models continue to be in a bit of disagreement and quite frankly there are a lot of unknowns at this time. Keep in mind however that impacts from this storm whether location is landfall or not will be significant. In fact , the rains for the mid-atlantic / northeast just due to the stalling cold front will be significant in itself. So where do we stand right now? , the cold front that produced a lot of rain last night and this morning is pushing through the region. By tomorrow this cold front will stall just off the coast due to the atlantic ridge in place.
Now as i type this a piece of the polar jet stream has broken off and that will be our ULL in the SE that is forecasted to capture joaquin.
waves of low pressure will ride along the boundary layer ( our stalled cold front) and produce periods of very heavy rain along the region starting tomorrow night through saturday. there is a ton of moisture from the pacific being drawn all the way up the coast as seen from the above WV image.
The idea here is that the ULL in the SE will deepen and intensify causing a neg tilt trough and capture both joaquin and the developing surface low and create a very large storm. As of this afternoon hurricane joaquin has developed a very nicely defined outflow. What this tells you is that high pressure is establishing itself aloft and this high pressure aloft will act as a shield to any shear and help to intensify the storm further.
The larger the storm the more north these types of systems tend to go and become much more influenced as far as track by the upper level winds, and become much harder to make a turn towards the west. the idea of this heading north and OTS IS STILL POSSIBLE , however with the observations seen from the WV image , the northwestern atlantic ridge is intensifying because the ULL over quebec is intensifying.
The model projections continue to show once the low pressure systems become captured and form into one the possible progression north.
What you should realize here is there are still many questions to be answered , anyone from the carolinas to Long Island should monitor closely and that even if landfall is to your south serious implications can still arise from this storm. Very heavy rainfall in the range of 5-8″ + over the coastal areas and even well inland with 3-6″ is quite possible. very strong east and northeast winds. Much more on this potentially dangerous situation as observations and data roll in.