Great Sunday Ahead , Heavy Rain / Storms Tuesday
Good morning everyone!!
Excellent weather conditions will continue today through the first half of monday.
Clear to scattered cloud cover , low humidity and a northeasterly wind around 5-15 mph.
These conditions however will not last long as a rain threat will develop monday eve with showers from west to east.
These showers will become much more widespread as a series of low pressures and s/w energies swing through the region.
The main threat especially on tuesday is the chance of very heavy rain as PWAT values range from 1.5-2.0
The threat for strong to severe Storms do exist , however , the instability is in question here 48hr out as showers will advance way ahead of the cold front on tuesday.
The question is just how much destabilization can occur in the atmosphere prior to the cold front passage.
The main threat here again is a pretty modest rainfall event on tuesday.
The threat however is real as latest model guidance suggests some key ingredients ,pretty modest LLJ , wind shear , and a marginal yet supportive lifting index along with modest moisture advection.
The caveat here however this is at the end of the model resolution , so you do have to sit back and monitor as it is still 48hr out.
The good news is after the frontal passage , sunshine with scattered clouds return along with comfortable humidity for the end of the week.
THE NEW YORK 7 DAY FORECAST
Meteorologist Steve Garry