ECMWF is sniffing out a tropical system. Will it develop?
As you may have heard people have been hyping all about the ECMWF model showing a pretty strong hurricane off the New England Coast. Well the thing is the ECMWF is the only model that is showing this area of low pressure bombing out when it gets to the Gulf Stream. GFS, CMC, Nam, and other models are not showing this system getting this strong. However the environment will become more conducive for development of the east Coast next week. Of course when you see one of the most accurate models showing a hurricane 2 runs in a row it catches your eye. East Coast next week. Of course when you see one of the most accurate models showing a hurricane it definitely catches your eye.
Now of course factors come into play on where this system will be going. Well at this point a trough of low pressure will dip down into the Great Lakes region next week giving the system to drift north. At the same time a tiny area of High pressure may still be lingering off the East Coast. Which may give it time to drift closer to the NC coast. But soon enough the trough will push the high pressure system out of the picture and the trough will pick up the system and slide it Northeast. At this point all we can say an area of low pressure will form to the east of Florida. But we can not decipher how close the system will get the New England coast and how strong it is going to be. Some models build the high pressure and slide the low pressure inland without even developing it.
Now the question on everyone’s mind is how strong will it get and how far will the system strike the New England Coast? Well if the High pressure system develops then it could ventilate the system from wind shear. Also the Gulf Stream contains waters that are the warmest near the East Coast. Waters right now are 28 to 29 degrees Celsius right now. This will also aid the system on potential strengthening which is what the ECMWF is dong at 216 hours out. But right now I am giving development chances at 40% right now. But in regards to how close it will get to the New England it is too far out to decipher. But most likely a trough will come and head out. But if it would get to below 970 mb pressure. Than there would still be impacts stay tuned!!!