Early Season Winter Storm Threat
Radar is looking very unimpressive as our storm approaches. The southern piece of energy looks suppressed and running behind schedule. This will limit the extent and duration of the cold air.
UPDATE Tuesday Early Morning:
It all comes down to timing. Latest GFS has our southern energy moving too fast for the cold air to arrive. That pushes the rain/snow line more inland. pic.twitter.com/IDTfG9FieX
— NortheastWeatherWx (@NEWeatherWx) November 5, 2019
Same idea with the NAM:
This lines up with my current thinking. An area of interior New England will receive at least 4-8″. Southeast PA, CT, RI, NJ and a majority of MA are out of luck with this one. Central and Northern PA will start off as rain before potentially switching over to their first flakes of the year. Regardless, no accumulation is expected in these areas.
UPDATE Monday Afternoon:
The forecast has not changed. This is an interior snowstorm, with some back-end flakes possible along the coast. As expected, the GFS continues correcting itself and now shows precipitation impacting the region. The GFS ensembles, which use the old GFS equations, are also picking up the storm.
Over the next day or so details of timing and the track will be worked out to finalize the forecast and release a snow map.
It is still struggling with precipitation type:
Probability of 4 or less inches of snow:
This is the first of many storm threats over the next few weeks. We are entering a cold and active pattern.
It’s that time of the year, snow and cold temperatures return to the forecast. While November snow is not uncommon, it is some of the trickiest weather to forecast. This storm is no different.
A cold blast, currently sitting over Russia, will impact the region as we head into Friday. It will hang around for a majority of next week.
To this point, the forecast is simple and confidence is high. However, models are in disagreement regarding a late week system.
The EURO is the model snow-lovers are rooting for. It shows the energy staying ahead of the trough, which is digging south in Iowa. This would prevent the storm from staying to the south of the region or going out to sea. It’s also responsible for providing the cold air.
The CMC is in good agreement with the EURO and ups the ante showing the trough dig deeper, resulting in more cold air.
If the EURO verifies, minor accumulations are likely and radar may look something like this:
The GFS has different thoughts regarding Fridays system. It’s currently showing the storm staying south, completely avoiding the region. The energy in Tennessee does not stay ahead of the trough. Additionally, the trough does it dig as far south, avoiding interaction with the energy.
The last few runs of the GFS have trended west with a slower moving storm. This would be more favorable for wintry precipitation.