Watching the Tropics: Any impact for the Northeast?

This evening, we are watching a tropical disturbance (declared Invest 91L) in the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Yucatan Peninsula. The National Hurricane Center is currently giving this disturbance a 60% chance of development over the next five days, with the most likely timeframe for development within the next 24 to 48 hours. Since models are converging on a development scenario, I would argue it is closer to 80%, and since it already has gale force winds associated with the system, it would be named Tropical Storm Bill. Models are close to unanimous on a landfall in the northwestern Gulf coast around midweek (most likely as a moderate tropical storm), with the middle or upper Texas coast the most likely and the Louisiana or lower Texas coast also possible.

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Model track guidance for Invest 91L (future Bill?) at 8:00 pm EDT June 13, 2015. Notice the spread from Corpus Christi to Lake Charles – and the remnant moisture reaching the Northeast potentially.

What does that all mean for the Northeast? Given that the moisture will likely end up in frontal boundaries and Bill is a sprawling system, a wet stretch of weather appears possible over the next week or so, although confidence is extremely low on where exactly the greatest moisture falls as it is dependent on other systems in the area (the tropical storm should be long dissipated by then). No matter what, the stagnant pattern with a stationary front suggests that heavy rain is likely for some. The Weather Prediction Center’s most recent rainfall map suggests nearly 4 inches (likely more locally) is possible for parts of the interior mid-Atlantic in the next week. Flood threats are too difficult to quantify at this time, however.

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Rainfall forecast for the next week (from WPC). Notice the large area of heavy rain that penetrates into the Northeast. Much of this will be associated with 91L/Bill and its remnants.

Stay tuned for updates, and for interests in the Gulf region, stay tuned to the NHC updates as well on this developing system. I am available on Twitter at @EternalWeather1.

Forecaster Craig Ceecee

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