UPDATE , Saturday Storm or No Storm System!

Good Morning Everyone ,

2016014_1230wv

The disturbance seen just east of California is racing to the east, and appears to be fast enough ahead of the polar disturbance for there to be no interaction. the following model guidance from last nights 0z ECMWF as well as other model guidance show this well. this is 0z Saturday or Friday night guidance.

ECMWF_500mbHgtMSLP_na_f48

The guidance clearly shows a surface low reflection off the S-Carolina coast but no interaction with the polar disturbance. What this will result from is a storm system that stays primarily offshore with the bulk of precipitation staying offshore as well.

ECMWF_500mbHgtMSLP_na_f60

With no interaction with the polar disturbance until late in the ball game , the cold air at 850mb & 925mb stay locked in with the polar disturbance , and the cold air does not cascade to the coastline until the low moves out.

ECMWF_850mbHgtT_na_f60ECMWF_925mbHgtT_na_f60

For the interior sections like NE PA , extreme NW NJ , Lower Hudson River Valley and NW CT a wintry mix although light with snow/sleet/rain , mostly sleet will fall early sat morning ending as snow with minor accumulations possible. For the coast mostly rain with the heaviest of rain falling right along the immediate coast , ending perhaps as some flurries.

It is a fast moving storm system , don’t be surprised to see some sunshine breaking out south to north by early afternoon.

NE-US

 

 

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