Tuesday’s Rain Threat

Good evening! Tomorrow is going to be a down right nast day. You can expect the rain to start in western NE around 6-8am and 8-10am in eastern NE. Rain will be very heavy at times with gusty winds. Now I will get a bit technical with images of models. First let’s start with the 18z NAM WRF simulated radar.

 

 

image image image image                                                                          As you can see rain moves in mid morning and really comes down for a good chunk of the day before ending in the evening. Now let’s look at the GFS.

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The GFS looks very similar to the NAM but it does have more action in the evening. This will be closely monitored throughout the day tomorrow. Now why am I so confident in heavy rain for tomorrow? Let’s take a look at the GFS precipital water map (PWAT).

 

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This map indicates how much available moisture is in the atmosphere. The higher up on the scale you go equals more moisture and heavier rainfall. All locations will be around 2. That is an impressive number for those that don’t know. This and a South to North flow will create some intense downpours and some urban flooding. The last thing that needs to get covered are the winds. Except sustained winds between 10-20mph with gusts up to 30-40mph. Obviously there can be higher gusts in thunderstorms. Below is the GFS sustained winds and gusts.image image

Thanks for reading and enjoy the rest of your evening!

@weather4life

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