Tuesday soaker and severe threat
Hello guys! This is RyanShampWX here and i will explaining the severe threat for tomorrow. First, the NAM 4km radar. It shows a huge cluster of showers and thunderstorms over New England at 18z. This will be associated with the warm front boundary. The second image shows good helicity values of New England which can lead to the possibility of a spin up. So wont rule one out, especially across New England. Once this warm front boundary passes, some more widespread showers and thunderstorms will form. The severe threat looks marginal at best due to marginal instability and lifted indices. The NAM 4km also shows high dew points which can add to the possibility of higher instability than forecasted on this model run. So main threats are gusty winds in any storm that forms and cannot rule out an isolated spin up. Flash flooding and lightning are a big concern as well due to the training of some downpours and intense heavy thunderstorms. Up to 5 inches of rain possible but most locations pick up 1-3 inches. Be weather aware tomorrow!