Tropical Trouble: East Coast Watching Closely

The East Coast is now watching the potential for a Tropical Storm to pass just off the coastline, or potentially closer in some areas, particularly in the Mid Atlantic & Northeast. So, let’s take a look at the latest details.

 

As of now, this expected “Tropical Storm” is only a Tropical Depression. As of the 5PM advisory from the NHC, it has winds of 35 MPH, pressure of 1003mb, and is moving at 6 MPH. I expect it to become a Tropical Storm during the overnight. If not then, probably Tuesday morning. Once it does that, most models show that it should start turning towards the north. It should be noted that this storm is NORTH of the Bahamas. I think Florida, Georgia, and as of now, South Carolina look to be okay. It is mainly from North Carolina to the Northeast that need to be on alert and aware of this storm.

 

I’m going to show you both the GFS and the HWRF. We’ll start with the GFS.

Here is the GFS timeline:

18z GFS at 00z Friday

18z GFS at 00z Friday

The storm is off the coast of South Carolina on the time above.

 

18z GFS at 12z Friday

18z GFS at 12z Friday

Now you can see the storm is off the North Carolina coast in the time above.

 

18z GFS at 18z Friday

18z GFS at 18z Friday

The GFS shows the storm now off shore near the Virginia/North Carolina border (above).

 

18z GFS at 00z Saturday

18z GFS at 00z Saturday

Now, on early Saturday, the GFS locates to storm very close to the NJ coastline, which must be watched (above).

 

18z GFS at 12z Saturday

18z GFS at 12z Saturday

The GFS slows the storm down a tad, only having the storm system STILL off the New Jersey coastline, near Ocean/Monmouth counties (above).

 

18z GFS at 18z Saturday

18z GFS at 18z Saturday

And, the GFS still has the rain for 18z Saturday (above).

 

This is the total amount of rain the GFS has ending at 18z Saturday, October 3. THIS INCLUDES RAIN THAT FALLS DURING THE WEEK (TUESDAY PM/WEDNESDAY). (Below)

Total rainfall at 18z Saturday... INCLUDING RAIN DURING THE WEEK

Total rainfall at 18z Saturday… INCLUDING RAIN DURING THE WEEK

The GFS rainfall during this week and into Saturday is showing up to 10″+ in some spots! Now, this may be overdone, in fact, much of the totals are probably overdone, but the storm is still far out and needs to be watched.

 

Next is the HWRF model:

18z HWRF at 00z Saturday

18z HWRF at 00z Saturday

The latest HWRF still has the future Tropical Storm Joaquin slamming right into New Jersey, then eventually continues it northward to NYC/Northern NJ, eventually into New York State (above).

 

This is what the HWRF solution would look like on radar (below):

18z HWRF at 00z Saturday

18z HWRF at 00z Saturday

PLEASE NOTE THAT I’M NOT SAYING THE HWRF IS GOING TO HAPPEN. I AM JUST SHOWING THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY. FORECASTS ARE INNACUARTE THIS FAR OUT!!

 

So, we’ve seen the different model solutions and we see the differences between these two models. The track isn’t so different, but the intensities are.

 

Let’s look at the spaghetti plots:

Global & Hurricane models (18z run)

Global & Hurricane models (18z run)

You see that most of the models go just off the NJ coastline and then through NJ towards New York state, or some along the coast into Southern New England (above).

 

Here is the GFS ensembles from Monday night’s 18z run (below):

18z GFS ensembles

18z GFS ensembles

 

Also, here is the latest 5PM Monday updated track from the NHC (below):

NHC cone track as of 5PM Monday

NHC cone track as of 5PM Monday

 

I will have a cone track out probably on Tuesday, so stay tuned!

 

I’ll have more updates as the week progresses. Stay tuned for the latest updates on this website, and if possible, social media is already buzzing with information!

 

If you have any questions, tweet me @jonathonrocco!

 

—Jonathon Rocco

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