Tropical Storm Danny: Where Is It Headed?

Tropical Storm Danny continues to spin in the Atlantic tonight, and we’ll most likely be watching this storm for the next week, maybe longer than that. Right now, there are no watches or warnings issued for islands in Danny’s path. It is interesting watching these computer models. The GFS took a HUGE jump westward with the track as it gets closer to Florida. The GFS has kept the storm east of Florida, and then, out of nowhere, the 18z run takes the storm off the WEST coast of Florida. Talk about model inconsistency! Anyway, here are the spaghetti models (18z runs) from tonight:

Global + Hurricane models

Global + Hurricane models

 

GFS Ensembles

GFS Ensembles

 

CMC Ensembles

CMC Ensembles

 

You see that all the computer models take the storm towards the Lesser Antilles and then towards Puerto Rico. It looks like Danny will most likely go just to the north of the Lesser Antilles, but the question is, does it hit Puerto Rico directly, or go just north or just south of it? All of that will depend on the intensity of the storm. The stronger the storm, the further north it goes. The weaker, the storm, the further south it will track.

 

Now let’s take a look at two different runs of the GFS. I mentioned the big differences in the track of the 12z and the 18z runs from today. First, let’s take a look at the 12z GFS from today (Wednesday):

12z GFS

12z GFS

 

12z GFS

12z GFS

 

12z GFS

12z GFS

 

You can see that the 12z GFS run takes Danny to the east of Florida and starts to go north, before it curves it out to sea. Now, let’s compare and take a look at the 18z GFS run:

18z GFS

18z GFS

 

18z GFS

18z GFS

 

18z GFS

18z GFS

 

Can you see the difference? I hope so! The 18z GFS takes Danny to the west coast of Florida and takes it into the Gulf of Mexico towards Alabama and Mississippi, then takes it onto land and weakens it, taking it on a continuous northwest track into the Midwest and Plains.

This is only ONE run of the GFS, so we’ll see what the 00z run says later in the overnight.

There are MANY questions as to where this will go. It is not even known if it will go north or hit the Lesser Antilles directly, however, it is looking likely to go north of the islands. This is a SLOW moving storm, and it won’t even be near the Florida area until later next week. So we have plenty of time to watch this!

The other thing to watch is its intensity. Here are the 18z computer model runs:

Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Danny intensities

Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Danny intensities

 

Intensity conclusion: It is likely that Danny will become a Category 1 Hurricane. A few models even take it to a Category 2. In order for Danny to become a Category 2, it will have to overcome one big thing: the Saharan dust going across the Atlantic creating dry air. The key to that is for Danny to strengthen FIRST, before in comes in contact with the dry air/Saharan dust in order to charge through it. As of now, Danny is expected to become a Hurricane by sometime late Thursday or Friday.

Here is my cone track as well as the National Hurricane Center’s track:

My cone track for Tropical Storm Danny (as of Thursday Afternoon)

My cone track for Tropical Storm Danny (as of Wednesday Afternoon)

 

Danny NHC track as of 5PM Wednesday

Danny NHC track as of 5PM Wednesday

 

If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to ask!! And thank you for reading. I hope I was able to give you all the information that you would like to know! More updates to follow over the next week!

 

— Jonathon Rocco

Twitter: @jonathonrocco

 

 

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