Thursday: The Return of the Rain

Well….. that lasted a short time! What a beautiful day Wednesday was! Sunny in the morning, some clouds in the afternoon, no humidity… and now it’s over. That’s right my friends, the rain will make a return on Thursday, unfortunately. There could be a few imbedded thunderstorms, but heavy rain will be the main threat. Do not expect anything in the form of strong to severe thunderstorms for your Thursday.

 

The HRRR is showing the rain knocking on western New Jersey’s door by around 4:30 AM Thursday.

HRRR- 4:40 AM

HRRR- 4:40 AM

 

A few hours later, most of the state should be dealing with moderate to heavy rains to make for a dreary morning commute to work and, if you still have it…. school.

HRRR- 7:45 AM

HRRR- 7:45 AM

 

There will be some showers possible around the area throughout the afternoon Thursday, and even stronger storms out to our west in Pennsylvania as well as to our south. However, the HRRR shows these storms staying out of our area.

HRRR- 6:00 PM

HRRR- 6:00 PM

 

The 4Km NAM shows the rain starting to enter the state starting around 09z and then overspreading most of the state by 12z.

4Km NAM- 09z Thursday

4Km NAM- 09z Thursday

 

4Km NAM- 12z Thursday

4Km NAM- 12z Thursday

 

Rainfall totals, according to the NAM, looks to be under an inch. So, although there will be some heavy rain, it will not amount to much. Of course, this can change, so be sure to check back on Thursday.

4Km NAM- total rainfall by 00z Friday

4Km NAM- total rainfall by 00z Friday

 

However, if you compare the HRRR FutureCast and the RGEM total rainfall, it does match up a little more. The HRRR, as seen above, shows some very heavy rain in extreme southern New Jersey early Thursday morning. The RGEM (below) shows those same areas receiving the heaviest amount of rain. The RGEM shows extreme southern NJ getting over an inch of rain, and, if the HRRR is right, it would make a little more sense. So, yes, I am leaning a little more towards the RGEM rainfall totals, but we will see how everything works out when the rain passes.

RGEM total rainfall by Friday

RGEM total rainfall by Friday

 

There may not be storms on Thursday, but there is a good chance to see some storms on Sunday with the remnants of Bill reaching the area (not to mention hot and humid!)… that information is in a separate post on this website, so be sure to check it out!

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On another note, I am grateful to have been voted one of the authors of the week. Thank you so much for your support and your views, and of course, voting. Enjoy the rest of your week and stay safe!

— Jonathon Rocco

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