Thunderstorms Return Tuesday

After a humid but nice Monday, thunderstorms come back into the forecast for Tuesday. The timeframe to watch currently is around mid morning through the afternoon. I do not expect any severe storms, but some of the storms may be on the stronger side. Some areas could experience flash flooding. Let’s take a look at the computer models:

RPM at 9:45 AM Tuesday

RPM at 9:45 AM Tuesday

RPM at 10:50 AM Tuesday

RPM at 10:50 AM Tuesday

RPM at 11:50 AM Tuesday

RPM at 11:50 AM Tuesday

RPM at 12:55 PM Tuesday

RPM at 12:55 PM Tuesday

RPM at 2:00 PM Tuesday

RPM at 2:00 PM Tuesday

RPM at 6:05 PM Tuesday

RPM at 6:05 PM Tuesday

 

The RPM shows some scattered showers and storms from New Jersey and points westward. It keeps Long Island mostly dry, which I do not agree with. It also shows most of the activity in Central and Southern NJ with just a few showers getting into Northern NJ. However, we must remember that this is guidance, not gospel, and the radar will not look exactly like this.

 

The 4km NAM model is next:

4km NAM at 12z Tuesday

4km NAM at 12z Tuesday

4km NAM at 15z Tuesday

4km NAM at 15z Tuesday

4km NAM at 18z Tuesday

4km NAM at 18z Tuesday

4km NAM at 21z Tuesday

4km NAM at 21z Tuesday

 

The 4km NAM is more reasonable, showing some heavy rain activity over Long Island, but not showing any thunderstorms. I think that heavy rain is the primary threat across the area. Any severe weather should stay to our south in Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia. Don’t worry, any outdoor plans you have will not have to be cancelled, this is a mostly scattered and not widespread event. If you take the RPM and NAM together, this is my Thunderstorm Threat map for Tuesday.

My Thunderstorm Threat map for Tuesday. Heavy Rain primary threat with some imbedded t-storms in most of NJ. Severe Weather stays south.

My Thunderstorm Threat map for Tuesday. Heavy Rain primary threat with some imbedded t-storms in most of NJ. Severe Weather stays south.

 

Here is the SPC Convective Outlook for Tuesday (Day 2):

SPC Thunderstorm Outlook (Tuesday)

SPC Thunderstorm Outlook (Tuesday)

 

Once again, keep an eye to the sky and watch the radar. This is not a widespread event, and any severe weather will stay south of the NJ area. Timeframe to watch, once again, is possibly the mid morning through the afternoon. However, last time the RPM showed showers in the morning, it didn’t really come true. So I think the better chance for showers and storms is mostly in the afternoon. Some stronger storms could lead to areas of minor flooding. Remember: Turn Around, Don’t Drown. Enjoy your day everyone and stay safe!!

 

— Jonathon Rocco

(@jonathonrocco)

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