Storms, Flooding to Continue Wednesday

Tuesday afternoon and evening had some very heavy rain that led to flash flooding and really saturated the ground. Well, that will continue into Wednesday. The problem is that there is a better chance of widespread heavy rains that will saturate the grounds even more. AND the problem there is the water doesn’t have anywhere to go but our streets, leading to flooding. So let’s take a look at the weather models and then we’ll discuss!

RPM:

RPM at 9:10 AM Wednesday

RPM at 9:10 AM Wednesday

RPM at 10:15 AM Wednesday

RPM at 10:15 AM Wednesday

RPM at 11:20 AM Wednesday

RPM at 11:20 AM Wednesday

RPM at 12:30 PM Wednesday

RPM at 12:30 PM Wednesday

RPM at 1:30 PM Wednesday

RPM at 1:30 PM Wednesday

RPM at 2:30 PM Wednesday

RPM at 2:30 PM Wednesday

RPM at 3:35 PM Wednesday

RPM at 3:35 PM Wednesday

RPM at 6:40 PM Wednesday

RPM at 6:40 PM Wednesday

 

WRF-NMM:

WRF-NMM at 09z Wednesday

WRF-NMM at 09z Wednesday

WRF-NMM at 16z Wednesday

WRF-NMM at 16z Wednesday

WRF-NMM at 19z Wednesday

WRF-NMM at 19z Wednesday

WRF-NMM at 20z Wednesday

WRF-NMM at 20z Wednesday

 

I think very heavy rain and flooding are the primary threats. The will be thunderstorms and frequent lightning, but I don’t think there will be anything severe. I think thunderstorms will be on the strong side, but I am watching the severe possibilities. I’ll have to watch how instability is as we go into Wednesday afternoon. Right now, the GFS show CAPE values between 500-2500. The RPM, as you saw, focuses the rain on Eastern, Central, and Southern NJ into Long Island. I think surrounding areas should see some on & off heavy rain, but the widespread activity is from areas of NJ, DE, and into LI. The timeframe to watch is mid morning for a few developing showers (like Tuesday morning had) and then watch activity pick up into late morning and through the afternoon and the evening. I’d say watch the radar from about 9-9:30 AM until around 7PM when things should hopefully quiet down. Rainfall totals could possibly get to locally 2″ in some of the areas of heaviest rain. This rain is due to a low pressure system that will slowly drift across the area.

Let’s go over the primary threats once more:

— VERY heavy downpours

— Flash flooding

— Strong thunderstorms

And remember that I will be watching the parameters for severe weather on Wednesday. I am thinking there could be a few localized severe thunderstorms, but I am not ready to say “yes” to that yet. Remember, when you see a flooded roadway: “Turn around, don’t drown.” And “When thunder roars, go indoors.” Here is the SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday as of Tuesday evening:

SPC Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2 (Wednesday)

SPC Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2 (Wednesday)

 

I’ll also leave you with MY thunderstorm threat map:

My PRELIMINARY thunderstorm threat map for Wednesday. A tweet will be sent out on Wednesday with an updated map.

My PRELIMINARY thunderstorm threat map for Wednesday. A tweet will be sent out on Wednesday with an updated map.

 

Everyone keep an eye to the sky and most importantly, stay safe!

— Jonathon Rocco

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