Storm Update: June 15/16

MONDAY

Well, we have certainly had some rain today! However, this is very good because we really can use all the rain we can get right now. Below is the radar estimated rainfall totals from the past 24 hours. Radar estimates totals up to 4″ in the yellow shaded areas, which lead to some flooding on the roads.

Estimated rainfall (Monday, June 15)

Estimated rainfall (Monday, June 15)

Now, below is the precipitable water. The areas in dark green could see some brief but heavy rain for Monday night, and this could lead to pockets of flooding overnight.

Precipitable Water

Precipitable Water

 

 

TUESDAY

Now as we go into Tuesday, the threat is still there to see some isolated scattered storms. Some of the storms will be strong to possibly severe. The NWS SPC has placed the region under a MRGL risk of severe weather for Tuesday. Once again, it will not be widespread.

SPC Thunderstorm Outlook (Tuesday)

 

The HRRR as of Monday night shows the scattered rain and thunderstorms after 12PM, but mostly after 1PM. Below is the HRRR for 1:20 PM Tuesday.

HRRR- 1:20 PM Tuesday

 

Here below is the 4km NAM showing the scattered thunderstorms at 21z.

NAM- 21z Tuesday

NAM- 21z Tuesday

 

The front moving through, possible peeks of sunshine, and the warm, sticky atmosphere will all help to fire up and “fuel” these thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. These storms could come down very heavy like today, in fact they will be very similar to today, bringing brief, heavy rains and flooding. So, be very cautious while driving on the roads. Remember: “Turn around, don’t drown!”

Do not fear, though! We do get a break with the rain on Wednesday, before more chances on Thursday. Stay safe everyone and enjoy your day!

 

-Jonathon Rocco

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