Storm Chances Continue: Tuesday

MONDAY RECAP:

So, Monday turned out to not be a bad day, in fact, it was fairly sunny with just some clouds and very few scattered rain showers in the afternoon. The humidity was on the higher side, and it will continue to be that way for Tuesday and Wednesday.

TUESDAY OUTLOOK:

The storm chances from Monday will carry for a second day into Tuesday. NAM CAPE values show there could be a few stronger storms possible, but I don’t think there will be anything severe. It is possible, but the NWS SPC just has us placed in a general risk of thunderstorms. The marginal risk of severe is well out to our west.

Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook (Day 2) TUESDAY, JULY 7th

Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook (Day 2) TUESDAY, JULY 7th

 

CAPE values are not too impressive, which is why I am against severe weather on Tuesday, but some stronger cells are not out of the question.

NAM CAPE values at 18:00 GMT Tuesday

NAM CAPE values at 18:00 GMT Tuesday

 

The chance of showers and storms, according to the RPM model, isĀ all morning into the afternoon hours, as it typically is. Here is the RPM model timeline. I will talk about how I think everything unfolds at the end. ***Remember, the Radar scan tomorrow will not exactly look the same for Tuesday as the FutureCast depicts. It is guidance.

RPM at 5:20 AM

RPM at 5:20 AM Tuesday

RPM at 8:25 AM Tuesday

RPM at 8:25 AM Tuesday

 

RPM at 10:30 AM Tuesday

RPM at 10:30 AM Tuesday

 

RPM at 11:35 AM Tuesday

RPM at 11:35 AM Tuesday

 

RPM at 3:50 PM Tuesday

RPM at 3:50 PM Tuesday

 

CONCLUSION: This is how I think everything plays out for Tuesday. I think it will be very similar to today. Probably looking at some sunshine in the morning with some scattered showers and storms developing towards the early afternoon. Most of the activity looks to be focused towards Central & Northern NJ on FutureCast. Once again, I don’t think there will be anything severe, but strong storms are not out of the question. Just be sure to check the Radar frequently, download any weather apps, and stay tuned for the latest updates. Keep the umbrella handy and an eye to the sky during the afternoon. This is when I think most of the activity is. Also note that the heat and humidity will stay with us, so try to enjoy some air conditioning! Shower and storm chances will continue for a third day on Wednesday, so another post is likely on Tuesday evening for that. Stay cool and enjoy your Tuesday!

 

—- Jonathon Rocco

Twitter: @jonathonrocco

 

 

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