Snow Outlook for the Week Ahead!

Good afternoon, everyone!

After last night’s snow and rain showers that moved through the region, we have a couple more opportunities to pick up some snow. However, as time goes on, these opportunities are seeming to wane more and more.

Our first opportunity to potentially pick up some snow across the region comes Sunday night into early Monday morning. There is a small wave of energy looking to turn into a small storm off of the East Coast late Sunday night. The first few runs of the NAM (North American Mesoscale model) that showed this storm showed potential for a moderate snowfall for all of Southern New England and a track off of the coast of New Jersey, moving ENE. However, more recent runs have taken all of this snow away. This is due to the fact that the forecasted track of the storm is much further south, and the low pressure center is now over the Delmarva Peninsula!

(Pictured: NAM output for Sunday night)

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_13

Also, the storm is appearing to be much weaker and will probably not have as much moisture as originally thought. Another one of our trusted models, the GFS, had this storm center in North Carolina and has trended north into Delmarva as well. The GFS never really showed potential for this storm to take place to begin with, and it appears as though the NAM and GFS are meeting in the middle with this one. So, people here in Southern New England should probably expect light snow at most with very little accumulation.

Our next storm system, however, is much less straightforward than this one, with many, many factors affecting this storm’s track and a lot of room for error. This is a very tricky storm to forecast, especially this far out, and models have almost no grasp on what will actually happen.

(pictured: Track uncertainty for main storm [west], with lead disturbance [east])

gem_mslp_pcpn_neus_18

The only trends that can be seen at this point are a decreased likelihood of snow across the region throughout the duration of this storm. Also, many models are picking up on a lead disturbance going up the coast before the main storm (seen in the last picture). If Southern New England happens to get snow, it’s most likely going to come from this lead disturbance, and possibly some back-end snow from the main storm.

Some models (like the GFS) are trying to take this main storm out west, and have the center ride up the Appalachians much like the storm we had earlier this week.

(pictured: GFS output for main storm)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19

Another model, the Canadian model, is trying to take this storm through New York City. Both of these tracks will most likely bring heavy rain to our area.

(pictured: CMC output, Low pressure over New York City)

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22

Keep in mind that the forecast for this storm can, and most likely will change over the next couple of days, and that this is a preliminary write up.

As always, have a great day, and enjoy the warm weather while we still have it!

-Ethan, @CTForecasting

 

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