Showers & Storms Likely Saturday, but Will They Be Severe?

We have been talking about the possibility of some thunderstorms on Saturday for the past few days. On Wednesday, we all got excited to see the CAPE values VERY high (up to 5000). Thursday, all storm chasers and severe weather lovers in this area had their excitement crushed. The severe weather threat has really lowered to near nothing. The 4km NAM shows the best chance to see some showers and storms is from Central NJ and north.

4km NAM at 15z Saturday

4km NAM at 15z Saturday

The GFS shows CAPE values that are okay for some POTENTIALLY strong to severe storms in Eastern PA. I’ll continue to watch this to see if the GFS continues to show this.

GFS CAPE values at 21:00 GMT Saturday

GFS CAPE values at 21:00 GMT Saturday

 

TIMING: The timing is kind of “broken up”. We should see showers and storms in the area very early Saturday morning. Then, we should get a break for a while before some more showers and storms start to pop up in the afternoon and evening.

 

After Saturday, Sunday also contains the chance to see some thunderstorms as well. However, I’m not too worried about that. Monday is the day to watch out for, when there is a much better chance to see widespread thunderstorms, likely severe storms as well, so stay tuned for the latest on that. I’ll probably have posts sometime Saturday night and on Sunday night.

12km NAM at 18z Monday

12km NAM at 18z Monday

 

Stay tuned for the latest information on the weekend and the upcoming storm chances. Follow: @NY_WX, @NEWeatherWx, @Northeast_blog, @crachetbob09 (Millenium Weather), @BanorCrac (Weather Watcher), and @_NEweather on twitter for the latest information you need to know before you head out the door.

Enjoy your weekend everyone and remember to be weather aware!

—- Jonathon Rocco (twitter:  @jonathonrocco)

Leave a Reply