Severe Weather Threat: Thursday

Well, I guess we just cannot get one day of full sunshine in so far this week. This issue continues into Thursday with a better chance at seeing more widespread showers and storms, primarily Thursday night into Friday morning. There is also a better chance of severe storms than there was Monday, Tuesday, & Wednesday. So, as usual, we’ll go through the different models. The thing you will find the most common is that all three models that I’m about to show you shows strong storms.

4km NAM:

4km NAM at 00z Friday

4km NAM at 00z Friday

4km NAM at 03z Friday

4km NAM at 03z Friday

4km NAM at 06z Friday

4km NAM at 06z Friday

 

NAM Discussion: So you see the NAM has most of the storm activity very early on Friday morning. The timing isn’t too different from other models, but it still shows some pretty strong storms coming through (not so much for Long Island, though).

 

WRF-NMM:

WRF-NMM at 23z Thursday

WRF-NMM at 23z Thursday

WRF-NMM at 01z Friday

WRF-NMM at 01z Friday

WRF-NMM at 02z Friday

WRF-NMM at 02z Friday

WRF-NMM at 03z Friday

WRF-NMM at 03z Friday

WRF-NMM at 04z Friday

WRF-NMM at 04z Friday

 

WRF-NMM Discussion: The WRF model has a similar concept and the same strength to the storms as the NAM, however, it does show some stronger activity than the NAM for you Long Islanders :)

 

RPM:

RPM at 5:25 PM Thursday

RPM at 5:25 PM Thursday

RPM at 6:30 PM Thursday

RPM at 6:30 PM Thursday

RPM at 6:30 PM Thursday

RPM at 6:30 PM Thursday

 

RPM at 7:30 PM Thursday

RPM at 7:30 PM Thursday

 

RPM Discussion: This shows the most interesting things, such as the bow echo I outlined above at 7:30 PM Thursday night. The radar will not look exactly like this, but it does say there could be damaging winds.

 

CONCLUSION: The daytime Thursday will not be bad at all. Some sunshine, though, will help fuel the air for Thursday night’s storms. Things to watch in any severe storms are: damaging winds, flooding/heavy rains, frequent lightning. Start keeping an eye to the sky after 4PM and throughout the night. Watch the radar and stay tuned to the latest updates. I’ll leave you with a look at the current NWS SPC thunderstorm outlook and the NAM model CAPE values.

— Jonathon Rocco

 

NAM CAPE at 21:00 GMT Thursday

NAM CAPE at 21:00 GMT Thursday

NAM CAPE at 00:00 GMT Friday

NAM CAPE at 00:00 GMT Friday

NAME CAPE at 03:00 GMT Friday

NAME CAPE at 03:00 GMT Friday

 

 

SPC Convective Outlook (Day 2- Thursday)

SPC Convective Outlook (Day 2- Thursday)

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