Severe weather possible Friday – mainly inland

Good evening.

The stalled frontal boundary over the Northeast, associated with two weak low pressure systems – one over Quebec and one over Kansas this evening – is lending itself to unsettled weather over much of the region. South of the frontal boundary, very hot, humid air is trying to build in, and it should succeed in doing so for the Mid-Atlantic, and may even do so for New England and inland areas this weekend. First, however, the severe weather threat for Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has assigned much of interior New York and northern Pennsylvania a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather on Friday. Activity should be more isolated in New England, northern New York and southern Pennsylvania – most of those areas have a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather.

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Weather map Thursday evening. Not much is changing right now.

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Risk of severe weather on Friday – slight risk for upstate NY and northern PA, marginal risk for most other areas except northern New England.

This is not expected to be a major severe weather outbreak by any means. However, convection should develop or track eastward across the region during the afternoon and evening on Friday. Damaging straight-line winds are likely the main threat, although isolated areas of large hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes – most likely weak – are possible. Overall, severe weather activity should be fairly isolated but thunderstorms – some strong – may be more widespread. The best chance for rotating storms is farther north, closer to the frontal boundary, although instability may be marginal there.

Although not a classic severe weather setup, lightning must always be considered a danger anytime thunderstorms (severe or not!) strike. When thunder roars, go indoors!

Forecaster Craig Ceecee

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