Severe Weather Discussion: Tuesday

After a nice day outdoors on Monday, the possibility of severe storms exists on Tuesday. The severe storms will be sparked by the heat and humidity out ahead of a front. I think the worst of the weather is likely to be around mid afternoon through Tuesday evening until the early overnight. This is the time period I think we need to watch for storms. I have looked at CAPE values, the SPC Convective Outlook, as well as computer model radar predictions and FutureCast. Below is all the screenshots of information I have looked at with my thoughts.

 

The 4Km NAM continues to show fairly high CAPE values. The areas with the highest CAPE values (according to the NAM model) has the best chance to see severe storms. Please read the caption!

NAM modeled CAPE values. RED CIRCLE= Best chance of severe. ORANGE CIRCLE= Severe storms

NAM modeled CAPE values. RED CIRCLE= Best chance of severe. ORANGE CIRCLE= Severe storms

 

So, in our immediate area. New Jersey, Pennsylvania, southern Hudson Valley, southwestern Connecticut, and areas southward have the best chance at seeing some severe storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Remember, this is only one model (NAM) and the next run could still change.

Like I said above, Tuesday will be a VERY hot day. Air temperatures in the 90s with heat indices 100°+!! Below is the NAM model showing where the worst of the heat indices may be.

NAM modeled heat index- Tuesday

NAM modeled heat index- Tuesday

 

You can see above that New Jersey, SE Pennsylvania, and points southward will be in the worst of the heat with feels-like temps around or above 100°. The air temps and humidity along with some sunshine will really get the atmosphere firing!

Now below are the different model predictions of the RADAR:

4Km NAM --- 21z Tuesday

4Km NAM — 21z Tuesday

 

4Km NAM --- 00z Wednesday

4Km NAM — 00z Wednesday

 

WRF-ARW --- 19z Tuesday

WRF-ARW — 19z Tuesday

 

WRF-ARW --- 21z Tuesday

WRF-ARW — 21z Tuesday

 

HRRR --- 10:30 AM Tuesday

HRRR — 10:30 AM Tuesday

 

HRRR 12:30 PM Tuesday

HRRR — 12:30 PM Tuesday

 

You see above that the models have their differences. You can also see the HRRR takes a line of showers in western PA and really intensifies it into a line of thunderstorms as they continue to move eastward.

Below is the newly issued SPC Convective Outlook for Tuesday as of Monday afternoon. They have now added an ENHANCED risk of severe weather in New England. Also, they have now put the entire region (yes, including Long Island) in a SLIGHT risk of severe weather.

SPC Thunderstorm Outlook --- Tuesday

SPC Thunderstorm Outlook — Tuesday

 

SPC categorical explanation chart

SPC categorical explanation chart

 

Here is my thunderstorm map for Tuesday based on what I see. I do agree with the NWS SPC with the map above for the entire region, though.

My thunderstorm prediction map

My thunderstorm prediction map

 

Continue to stay tuned for updates. If you have any questions, you may email me: jerseystateweather@gmail.com or you may tweet me: @jonathonrocco. Stay safe! Expect another post Tuesday afternoon with the latest information.

 

– Jonathon Rocco

 

Storms destroy homes in Freehold, NJ and uproots and trees into homes and knocking down power lines in one of two severe storms in July 2012. Power took several days to be restored. (Picture courtesy: www.nj.com)

Storms destroy homes in Freehold, NJ and uproots and trees into homes and knocking down power lines in one of two severe storms in July 2012. Power took several days to be restored. (Picture courtesy: www.nj.com)

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