Severe Storms Coming!!

Severe storms are firing in Pennsylvania and more will continue to fire for this afternoon and evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for these areas until the times listed.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAP

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAP

 

We will now take a look at the current observations. Some of these observations are important to where and how everything works out.

#1) PRECIPITABLE WATER

In the red circled area is where the Precipitable Water is the highest, which tells me this is the area that may experience the heaviest of the rainfall and could see the worst of any flash flooding. You can see that it is highest in Central/Southern NJ

 

#2) SURFACE LIFT INDEX

The lift index is getting higher, and higher, and higher. In fact, I had to take a new screenshot of it because some areas went from -6 to a -9 or even -10. In the ORANGE CIRCLE is where I think there is the best chance of severe weather. In the RED CIRCLE is where I think people should REALLY watch the weather conditions carefully and where I think the worst of severe weather will unfold.

 

#3) TEMPERATURES & HUMIDITY

OK, obviously it is VERY hot outside with temps in the 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100! These temperatures and humidity levels will help fuel the atmosphere. The atmosphere is becoming more and more unstable. The immediate coastline should escape the real severe weather, but still has a chanve. In the red circle on the map above, notice I circled mostly inland areas. This is because the atmosphere is most unstable there.

 

 

 

Ok… now we’ll take a look at what the HRRR is predicting this evening.

HRRR 2:07 PM

HRRR 2:07 PM

 

HRRR 3:10 PM

HRRR 3:10 PM

 

HRRR 5:10 PM

HRRR 5:10 PM

 

HRRR 6:15 PM

HRRR 6:15 PM

 

HRRR 7:15 PM

HRRR 7:15 PM

 

So you can see that we are really dealing with the thunderstorms between somewhere during the 2PM hour up until 7-8 PM. Remember there is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and there will more than likely be warning issued.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS:

So, looking at the current observations and computer models and how these current observations are unfolding, the map below shows where I think the best chance of severe weather is.

Main storm threats:

1) Hail

2) Dangerous lightning

3) Possible flooding

4) Damaging winds

5) Isolated tornado possible

6) Power outages

**Remember to move indoors when you hear thunder or see lightning. Also remember to stay AWAY from fallen power lines and call your power company immediately. Also… “TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!!”

— Jonathon Rocco

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