Remainder of November

This blog post is to basically summarize how the rest of November should go. Before I begin, please note that there is not a Thanksgiving Forecast included in this blog post. A Thanksgiving Day forecast will be released on Friday, November 20th by 8:00 PM. That forecast will be updated as necessary. Now, let’s begin and talk about how the rest of the month rolls out both temperature wise and sky-conditions wise.

 

SHORT TERM:

PART 1: MIDWEST SNOWSTORM:

To start in the short term, the Midwest will be dealing with their first actual snowstorm:

GFS at 06z Saturday

GFS at 06z Saturday

GFS at 18z Saturday

GFS at 18z Saturday

 

Parts of the Midwest could potentially receive up to 8-10″ of snow!! (Yes, Midwest. The entire Northeast snow-lover community is jealous of you, okay!).

PART 2: POSSIBLE EAST COAST COASTAL STORM?:

Model guidance has been starting to pop up a potential coastal system so start next week, on Monday. This storm originally looked to be farther east, however, the GFS (which I mainly look at) has been shifting the track further to the west closer to the coast. Do not assume automatically that I’m talking about a snow event. Yes, perhaps if it came west enough, and the air was cold enough, you couldn’t rule out the chance of some flakes. However, let’s talk about what is reality at this time, and not the slim possibilities. If this were to come further west, this would be pretty much all rain. As of now, the GFS has the storm just off the shoreline. We’ll see how it adjusts over the next few days.

GFS at 00z Monday, November 23

GFS at 00z Monday, November 23

GFS at 06z Monday, November 23

GFS at 06z Monday, November 23

GFS at 12z Monday, November 23

GFS at 12z Monday, November 23

Be sure to stay tuned for the latest updates in regards to this potential coastal storm, as to whether it goes OTS are affects the coastal areas/East Coast.

PART 3: COLD WEEKEND AND START TO THE NEW WEEK:

We’re going to have to bundle up as we head into this weekend!! Temperatures are expected to be stuck in the 40s and low 50s this weekend. Maybe that’s not terrible, but as we start the new week, it will get worse! Temperatures Monday will be in the 40s, and potentially the upper 30s in spots, particularly in NW NJ and in higher elevations and in New England. There is also a chance at some scattered flurries or very light snow showers (briefly and non-accumulating) in the areas of New England. Tuesday should be better, however, we are still very chilly with temps in the mid/upper 40s to low 50s towards the NYC/NJ areas, but still in the upper 30s/40s in New England.

Temps on Saturday, November 21

Temps on Saturday, November 21

Temps on Sunday, November 22

Temps on Sunday, November 22

Temps Monday morning, November 23

Temps Monday morning, November 23

Temps on Monday, November 23

Temps on Monday, November 23

Temps on Tuesday, November 24

Temps on Tuesday, November 24

Temps on Thursday, November 26

Temps on Thursday, November 26

Temperatures, as you see above, should return to the mid/upper 50s in spots as we head into the head of the week, and above is a sneak preview at the possible temperatures for Thanksgiving Day!

 

LONG TERM:

PART 1: END OF THE MONTH STORM?:

The GFS has recently been showing the possibility at a storm towards the end of the month. @_NEweather (Joey), has been saying in his thoughts that he think there would be a possible storm system at the end of the month. Could he be right? I wouldn’t be surprised, but it is over a week out and there will be a lot of changes! As of now, the GFS is showing a rain to a snow event if this were to happen.

GFS at 06z Sunday, November 29

GFS at 06z Sunday, November 29

GFS at 12z Sunday, November 29

GFS at 12z Sunday, November 29

GFS at 18z Sunday, November 29

GFS at 18z Sunday, November 29

Once again, please remember that this is far out (over a week) and there will be many, many changes if this storm were to even happen.

 

PART 2: COLD TEMPERATURES TO END THE MONTH AND START A NEW?:

The GFS shows temperatures very cold to end out November and to start up December! I’m going to show you this, but PLEASE know that this is far out and there is a good chance that these temperatures could be well underdone.

Temps on Sunday, November 29

Temps on Sunday, November 29

Temps on Monday, November 30

Temps on Monday, November 30

Also, please don’t automatically say, “well, the GFS is certainly cold enough for snow, and it shows a storm, so I guess we’re gonna have a snowstorm!” Like I said repeatedly, this is all over a week out!! However, stay tuned as, of course, I will be keeping you informed with the latest updates throughout the weekend and next week.

—————————————————————————————————–

I hope you all found this to be useful and informative. If you have any questions or would like to comment on this post, please leave a comment below or tweet me: (here is the link to my twitter: @jonathonrocco)

 

Enjoy your Friday and your weekend!!

— Jon Rocco

 

 

Leave a Reply