Rainy pattern continues
Good evening. I am Craig, a new editor at Northeast Weather and aspiring meteorologist (I still have a few years to go).
The severe weather threat has already been discussed for tomorrow. However, the rainfall looks to remain an issue as well, both from thunderstorms in the warm sector and from the stationary front in the northern tier associated with a weak low pressure system over eastern Canada that is very slow moving. As this front is not likely going anywhere between now and the weekend, heavy rainfall totals are possible. The heaviest rainfall looks to be in upstate New York and especially western and central Pennsylvania, where amounts over 4 inches are possible through the weekend (locally higher in thunderstorms). Rainfall becomes more localized over New England, although the pattern would lend itself to downpours as well.
Although widespread flooding is not expected at this time (it is certainly possible in the Midwest, but not in the Northeast), localized flash flooding is certainly possible. Flash flood guidance is about 1.5 to 3 inches over a 3 hour period, with the higher end totals in southern New England which is in a moderate drought situation presently. Most rain there would be welcome, although it might be too much for the inland areas and especially in western New York and western Pennsylvania.
Considering the major flooding in Texas, Oklahoma and other states, we shouldn’t be complaining in the Northeast though. Summer is always unpredictable with thunderstorms common on most days. It was a dry April and May after what was for many a brutal winter, so weather may be returning to equilibrium.
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Forecaster Craig Ceecee