Rainstorm Update: Further North or Further South?

There have been many different views as to whether or not the Northeast will see the rainstorm on Thursday night & Friday. That chance was there at the beginning of the week, but at this point, it is becoming less likely. The question that Meteorologist Bernie Rayno has been focusing on with the ECMWF is whether or not the north trof can lift north in time.

The models were showing this system getting as far as NYC at the beginning of the week. Starting with the 00z GFS on Tuesday, we’ll go through a timeline of the GFS and what it has shown up to this point. You will notice the model shifts the system further and further south.

TUESDAY:

GFS 00z Tuesday run at showing 12z Friday

GFS 00z Tuesday run at showing 12z Friday

GFS 06z run Tuesday at 12z Friday

GFS 06z run Tuesday at 12z Friday

GFS 12z run Tuesday at 12z Friday

GFS 12z run Tuesday at 12z Friday

GFS 18z run Tuesday at 12z Friday

GFS 18z run Tuesday at 12z Friday

WEDNESDAY:

GFS 06z run Wednesday at 12z Friday

GFS 06z run Wednesday at 12z Friday

GFS 12z run Wednesday at 12z Friday

GFS 12z run Wednesday at 12z Friday

 

You see above that the trend southward with the GFS started with the 06z run on Tuesday and has been fairly consistent with the southern track since then. The newest 12z run on Wednesday is the GFS run that I am leaning towards. I think the rain gets as far north as extreme Southern New Jersey (Cape May, Atlantic, Cumberland, Salem, Gloucester counties). Here is a map I made with my thinking so you can see it more clearly:

My storm threat map for Thursday into Friday

My storm threat map for Thursday into Friday

The National Weather Service has issued Flood Watches in parts of the Midwest (parts of Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri).

 

I’ll keep you updated on the latest information and will continue to keep an eye on the computer model runs. Stay tuned for the latest updates!!

You can follow me on twitter: @jonathonrocco

You can also follow or check out the following other twitter pages, as they will also keep you updated on the latest information!

NY Metro Weather: @NY_WX

Steven DiMartino: @nynjpaweather

CT WeatherHQ: @CWeatherboy

CT Weather: @Connecticut_Wx

NortheastWeatherWx: @NEWeatherWx

Northeastweatherwx: @Northeast_blog

SteveGwx: @SteveGy68

Anthony Siciliano: @Ants_SNEweather

Joe Cioffi Weather: @joecioffi

And I can go on, and on, and on!! Just head over to my page to see who I follow, and go check them out!! The entire weather community will work hard to keep you updated!

Enjoy the rest of your day and have a great rest of the week!

—Jonathon Rocco

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