Rain Tonight & How it Helps; Pattern Change Likely in November

Good Evening!

A strong temperature gradient across the northeast tonight has led to heavy showers and thunderstorms throughout the afternoon in the tri-state area and up into southern New England. Though every drop of rain counts toward offsetting the drought, it is going to take significantly more to return to normal.

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The rain will weaken tonight and will clear off the coast before sunrise tomorrow morning (Monday). Monday and Tuesday will feature temperatures around average to slightly below average this time of year. By Wednesday, we can expect a significant warm up, which will last through Thursday. During the day Thursday, a low pressure will move through upstate New York and Massachusetts, dragging beneath it a cold front with showers that will lead to colder weather Friday. The weekend will be dry with normal temperatures.

 

Following that, a pattern change is likely to occur around the middle of November. As shown below, ridging will keep the northeast warmer than average for the first half of the month, but a trough will begin to build into the region during the second week of November.

 

October 31 through November 4:

 

November 4 through November 9:

 

By the middle of the month, the transition has occurred, leaving the pattern looking like the following:

 

The eastern third of the country will be slightly colder than normal by the middle of the month.

 

During this time, snow will be possible with storms or clippers moving through, especially in northern areas and higher elevations. Models tend to be in agreement with this pattern flip, although it is too early to tell the duration of the cool down.

 

Summary:

Date Event Explanation
Nov. 1-9 Slightly warm, dry A ridge keeps the northeast warm and generally dry, with the exception of Thursday, November 3.
Nov. 10-13 Transition period A trough replaces a ridge; average temperatures can be expected during this time.
Nov. 14-19 Slightly cool, snow possible With a trough in place, cold air will be available for snow, especially in northern areas and higher elevations.
Nov. (Entire Month) Average temperatures Several temperature flips are expected during November, with the second half likely colder (in terms of normal) than the first half. Overall, average temperatures are expected.

The views expressed in this blog do not necessarily represent those of Northeast Weather.

Forecaster Michael Deo – @tri_state_wx on Twitter

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