Rain to Soak Mid Atlantic & Northeast

Major Hurricane Patricia’s remnants are lashing the Gulf of Mexico coast currently and will continue moving northeast towards our area.

The rain starts early Wednesday morning and will last through the day, potentially into part of Thursday as well.

Here is the GFS:

GFS at 06z Wednesday

GFS at 06z Wednesday

You see the GFS above has rain getting into the New Jersey & Northeast area by 06z on Wednesday. It has heavier rain in areas towards 18z Wednesday (below):

GFS at 18z Wednesday

GFS at 18z Wednesday

The GFS continues the rain into Thursday through 00z, then it diminishes by 12z on Thursday with areas in the Mid Atlantic drying out, and New England still seeing showers:

GFS at 00z Thursday

GFS at 00z Thursday

GFS at 12z Thursday

GFS at 12z Thursday

 

However, it is evident that we do need the rain, especially Connecticut and Long Island. The latest drought monitor as of October 20, 2015 shows that most of Connecticut, Long Island, and parts of New Jersey are in “MODERATE DROUGHT” while other areas in New Jersey are only “ABNORMALLY DRY”:

NJ Drought Monitor

NJ Drought Monitor

Long Island Drought Monitor

Long Island Drought Monitor

Connecticut Drought Monitor

Connecticut Drought Monitor

 

The GFS shows over 2″ of rain in spots when all is done. The map below is the GFS at 00z Friday:

GFS rain total by 00z Friday

GFS rain total by 00z Friday

 

 

 

The next chance of rain could potentially be to start next week. I’ll keep an eye on that over the course of this week and the weekend and inform you on any developments.

GFS at 12z Monday, November 2

GFS at 12z Monday, November 2

 

—Jonathon Rocco

 

 

 

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