rain for some tomorrow , weekend forecast , and a peek at next week

Good evening everyone!!

Well , will there be rain? , yes there will but only for some. The short wave trough drove towards the tennessee river valley this morning ,

ECMWF_500mbHgtVort_na_f3

and will pivot towards the mid-atlantic coast tomorrow morning. The low pressure system as forecasted yesterday will swing to the east just far enough

to keep the majority of the region rain free. In fact NE PA , NNJ , HUDSON RIVER VALLEY , N CT may just see dry conditions.

NYC METRO may only see around a tenth of an inch of rain , most locations will stay dry!!

The winds will be picking up 10-20mph on friday and saturday for the region as the low pressure intensifies off the coast.

DC , DELAWARE ,VA , ¬†NORTH CAROLINA this is where the bulk of the rainfall will fall where a .50″ to 2″ will fall (heaviest along the coast)

SNJ will get showers but looks to escape the heavy rainfall. the only exception will be cape may county , wildwood NJ where as much as an 1″ of rain may fall.

here is the latest rainfall projections from the wpc

d12_fill

 

Most of SNE misses this except the cape which i feared in last evenings discussion , the rainfall although not heavy will impact the islands.

 

NOW TO THE WEEKEND AND THE SOUTH JERSEY BEACH FORECAST!!

The great news is that by the weekend the storm will be moving away , skies will clear  , kinda coolish conditions with low humidity. the winds will be rather strong at 20mph at times especially on sat

ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_na_f45ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_na_f72

BrowserPreview_40tmp

A SNEAK PEEK INTO NEXT WEEK

The synoptic weather pattern certainly has my attention for some pretty impressive storms for the east coast.

How they play out? , well we just have to monitor , the synoptics favor this storm tomorrow but just one detail ( positive tilted trough) threw the whole forecast out from earlier in the week.

But check out how deep these troughs get in the east next week

ECMWF_500mbHgtVort_na_f120

This is impressive , i mean its the beginning of august here , almost perfect ridge and trough axis for storms along the eastern seaboard.

and take notice of that energy rounding the base of the trough moving forward

ECMWF_500mbHgtVort_na_f123ECMWF_500mbHgtVort_na_f129

This certainly has the capabilities of being a pretty good rain event , however , just like this current storm we cannot jump the gun and draw conclusions just yet.

The smallest things can go wrong and knock the whole forecast off , we will watch it here at northeastweatherwx and as always give you the latest info.

One thing for sure , it will not be a hot week in the east , and certainly has the looks and synoptic setup to be rather active.

QUESTIONS / COMMENTS hit me up at SteveGwx on twitter

 

NEW YORK CITY 7 DAY

BrowserPreview50_tmp

 

Meteorologist Steve Garry

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply