Monday Night – Tuesday Night forecast for S. New England!

 

Hello, this is my first post here and I’d like to introduce myself. My name is Ethan and I live in northern CT. I’m a junior in high school and I also have a passion for forecasting and weather. I also have my own twitter page (@CTForecasting) for up-to-date forecasts and daily region-wide forecasts. I look forward to forward to forecasting for Southern New England and beyond! This is my forecast for the storm Monday –Tuesday!

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Another storm, another tricky forecast for Southern New England. This winter has been tough to forecast accurately, and this storm is definitely no exception. Snow is expected to roll in at around 4-6 pm region-wide, but the question is, exactly how much are we supposed to get? Also, how much ice accretion could we possibly get?

Well, we need to look deeper into the storm to answer those questions. We have a lead disturbance in front of a strengthening low pressure system that is forecasted to ride up the Appalachians. This lead disturbance is mainly what is going to bring snow to our region. On its heels is our larger storm system that is forecast to raise temps to 50o in some areas! For the coastal areas of CT, MA and RI, this change over to above freezing temperatures will happen sometime around 10pm-12 am tonight (Monday night). As for Northern CT and the inland parts of RI and MA, the rise in temperatures above freezing will happen significantly later. For most of the area, it should happen by 3 am Tuesday AM. However, there are a couple exceptions, being the Connecticut and Farmington River valleys, and upper elevations of CT. These places could see a rise above freezing as late as 5-7am!

So, what do these mean for snow totals and ice totals? Well for ice totals, it’s pretty straight forward. Lesser amounts of ice towards the coast, maybe <.1” of ice, as the surface temps may rise too quickly for ice too accumulate. Be warned however, that since it was so cold this weekend, ice could still accumulate even if temperatures are say, 35o. Northern CT, MA and RI could definitely see a decent icing, somewhere between .1 and .25” for most of the area. However, in the aforementioned exceptions, you can see even more than .25”!

Snow is a tougher forecast however. It all depends on the upper levels of the atmosphere, and how warm/cold they are. At the moment, it’s seeming as though the lead disturbance is trending a bit colder and has a bit more moisture in it. My thinking is that the disturbance could have enough juice in it to snow all the way until the temperatures rise above freezing in coastal areas (10pm to 12am). You’d also have to watch out for possible banding features close to the coast of CT that could raise the totals there. The inland parts however are a tough forecast.  My thinking is that the upper level temps will rise faster than the surface temps there, meaning that the snow to rain/sleet changeover will be sooner rather than later, possibly at 1-2 am. Between 2-3 am, the chance for sleet and freezing rain will be more prevalent than snow will be, even in valleys. You can expect totals to be higher inland, and lower especially around SE MA and RI.

I have made an ice and snow forecast map (pictured below) to aid with my forecast for this storm!

After this disturbance rolls through, the main storm will come in and temps should skyrocket to the mid 40s for inland areas and 50s for coastal areas! This is where the heavy rain and thunderstorms begin. Flooding is a concern with this storm because of the snowpack and ice, along with about 1-1.5” of rain during the day on Tuesday, so be sure to clean around your basement to prevent flooding. Also, uncover any covered drains on the road!

 

Hopefully this helps, and be safe!

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SPC T-storm predictions for Tuesday

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For up to date forecasts be sure to follow me @CTForecasting on twitter!

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