Model Update

WARNING: TAKE WHAT THESE MODELS SAY WITH A GRAIN OF SAND. MODELS ARE SIMPLY THERE TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THIS POST.

Looking at the 18z run of the GFS, its interesting (to say the least) what the GFS is showing. It shows two tropical waves at the same time that Danny is coming up on the Antilles. One falls apart, the other (showing 1006 mB) turns into a potential hurricane FAR out at sea.

gfs_mslp_wind_atltropics_21gfs_mslp_wind_atltropics_41

 

The CMC and ECMWF show the duo/trio of waves, but neither turn any into a hurricane. The ECMWF shows something that resembles a TS.

CMC:gem_mslp_wind_atltropics_21gem_mslp_wind_atltropics_41

ECMWF:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_atltropics_6ecmwf_mslp_uv850_atltropics_11

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