JOE CIOFFI’S WEATHER UPDATES: JOESTRADAMUS ON TUESDAY SEVERE WX THREAT
REMEMBER JOESTRADAMUS RECOMMENDS STRONGLY during adverse weather to download my weather app for android or I phones. Download My Weather Concierge for your Android phone today. The app is free and you can subscribe to my forecasts for 99 cents a month. Imagine im cheaper than a cup of coffee!
Given that the NAM model is not the only model by which we live by, I have taken a look at a slew of others regarding tomorrow’s severe weather threat. The potential absolutely is there. No question of that. Lately however it seems that storms just don’t seem to want to hold up to billing. Still I want to respect that the models are pointing to this and everything I looked at is saying strong to severe thunderstorms later Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The RGEM has a very impressive area for late in the afternoon with an obvious line moving through. I looked at a number of models and in terms of rainfall the average on all of them was under .50 inches so these storms are going to be moving to quick I think to cause anything substantial on the flooding end but one never knows. The main threat I think will be from potentially damaging winds and of course whether the atmosphere would be ripe for tornados but that is a very short term issue for tomorrow. The WRF joins the NAM with a less than impressive line of storms and in fact this model completely misses the boat with regards to New England down to NYC and focuses its attentions further west and south.
Below is the HRRR model for tormorrow morning 8am and you can see how it has its precip lined up with the cold front just nw of Western NY down to southern Michigan into Northwest Indiana. This model is ultra short range and doesn’t go any further than tomorrow morning at this particular time but I will update this later this evening. This is what it says the radar will look like tomorrow morning so we will see how well it lines up.
Meteorologist Joe Cioffi Weather updates is a complete weather website. You will find weather updates, weather news, weather radar, my weather app, snow forecasts, severe weather, hurricanes and other tropical weather, current conditions, long