Heavy Rain & Storms to Soak Tuesday

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are in the forecast for your Tuesday. Rain should begin very early Tuesday morning and stay with us through the morning commute and through the morning. There should be a break in the action late morning and part of the afternoon, before some more showers and storms come through areas Tuesday evening, before ending Tuesday night. There is a chance of ISOLATED¬† severe¬†thunderstorms as well, but heavy rain, gust winds, and flooding are the main concerns. I expect Flash Flood Watches to be expanded, as the NAM predicts Precipitable Water Table values of up to 2.2″ across most of the region. Here is the 4km NAM for Tuesday:

NAM at 09z Tuesday

NAM at 09z Tuesday

NAM at 12z Tuesday

NAM at 12z Tuesday

NAM at 15z Tuesday

NAM at 15z Tuesday

 

The WRF-ARW has a similar idea to the NAM, although it is more powerful with thunderstorms. Here is the WRF-ARW for Tuesday:

WRF-ARW at 07z Tuesday

WRF-ARW at 07z Tuesday

WRF-ARW at 08z Tuesday

WRF-ARW at 08z Tuesday

WRF-ARW at 09z Tuesday

WRF-ARW at 09z Tuesday

WRF-ARW at 13z Tuesday

WRF-ARW at 13z Tuesday

WRF-ARW at 21z Tuesday

WRF-ARW at 21z Tuesday

 

Overall, this is how I think the thunderstorm threat plays out. This may change, so stay tuned for updates:

My thunderstorm threat map for TUESDAY

My thunderstorm threat map for TUESDAY

 

Rain totals could exceed 2″ in areas, some computer models even show the potential for close to 3″! So, there is a concern of flash flooding, particularly in the times of very heavy rainfall. It is going to be a soggy, wet, dreary Tuesday, so have the umbrella’s handy!!

 

— Jonathon Rocco

Twitter: @jonathonrocco

 

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