Heat Wave to Start September; Any Drought Relief?

The start of September is feeling more like July rather than the start of meteorological fall. That is because there is a big ridge over much of the United States keeping us mostly dry and warm. High pressure is also keeping the dry air in place as it dominates the region.

Current atmospheric setup

The GFS does depict that a ridge will form around September 15, bringing some cooler air. In fact, the GFS has highs in the 60s and 70s around that time!

GFS September 15 temperatures

GFS showing ridge over the Northeast around September 15

We’ll see if the GFS will verify, but if it does, expect at least a short term cool down towards the middle of September. This is very good for kids in school with no air conditioning. However, what is NOT good is the dry conditions that seem to stick around for a while. This is due to the ridge and the dominant high pressure system. We really need widespread soaking rain to knock down the drought. Yes, there will be days with some showers, but we need a good soaking. Here is the latest drought monitor:

Drought monitor as of August 27, 2015

Drought Monitor as of August 27, 2015

You see that Central & Northern NJ is in “Abnormally Dry” conditions, while parts of Long Island is in a “Moderate Drought”. I will continue to keep you updated on this drought and the above-normal temperatures.

Short term, we are likely dealing with a heat wave! Temperatures should continue in the upper 80s and low 90s in spots through Thursday, until a frontal boundary comes through and brings the chance of a scattered shower, and knocks down the temperatures for Friday back into the 80s. HOWEVER, there is NO official heat wave for New Jersey, as Newark did not make it to 90° this Tuesday. Therefore, only certain spots will get the heat wave. New York City, however, DOES get a heat wave, as Central Park did make the 90° mark on Tuesday.

I’ll have a look at the Labor Day weekend forecast coming up on Wednesday!

Enjoy the rest of your week and stay cool!

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