First Arctic Outbreak of 2016; Long Range Storm Threats

PART I: ARCTIC OUTBREAK

The first real cold air of the Winter season is about to enter in! This Arctic outbreak will be very cold. The core of the cold is expected to be with us for Monday and Tuesday. Sunday is expected to be basically the same as today (Saturday) was. So, if you didn’t spend Saturday making sure you have all of your essential winter clothes, I would suggest you take time on Sunday to do so. Monday morning temps are expected to be in the 20s with wind chills colder than that. During the day on Monday, temps should be the same as the morning in the 20s, with teens and even single digits the further north you go in Northern New England. The real core of this arctic air will be Monday Night/Tuesday. Tuesday morning temperatures are expected to be in the teens, probably single digits in Northern NJ, Northern PA, and New England. However, Northern New England (Northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine) is likely to be SUB-ZERO! That’s right, SUB-ZERO! The key word for clothes is: LAYERS. Have a heavy jacket, scarf, hat, and good gloves. You do not want to expose a lot of skin in this weather.

Now as we go through Monday, there could be some flurries, maybe a snow squall or two, developing across the area. This could, potentially, put a very, very light accumulation on the coldest surfaces. However, I really don’t expect much at all. I’m talking maybe a dusting or a coating. However, as Anthony Siciliano (@Ants_SNEweather) points out, parts of Coastal New England could receive more than that:

 

As for New Jersey, here is the National Weather Service’s (Mount Holly, NJ) MAXIMUM POTENTIAL Snowfall by 7PM Tuesday:

NWS Snow Potential

NWS Snow Potential

As we go into Wednesday, temperatures should moderate a bit. Before that, Tuesday’s highs expected to be in the teens/20s across the Northeast. Here is the 18z GFS timeline for temperatures:

Monday

Monday

Monday Night

Monday Night

Tuesday

Tuesday

Tuesday Night

Tuesday Night

Wednesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Thursday

After Tuesday, starting and Wednesday, you can see that temperatures will moderate. However, don’t think that the cold is gone for good!! Models show ANOTHER arctic blast coming through from the 14th to the 18th (18th is last timeframe of the GFS). Here is the GFS showing this arctic blast:

Mon 18

Thursday, January 14

Thursday, January 14

Monday, January 18

Monday, January 18

 

PART II: LONG RANGE STORM THREATS

Now, as we look into the weekend of the 9th/10th, the storm threat still exists. I’m not going to discuss the storms this far out, but I will give you timeframes to watch. I’m not discussing storms this far out because the models are having a lot of trouble and are flipping and flopping constantly.

Like I just said, the first storm threat is around 1/9-1/10. Here was the latest GFS run:

Storm Threat: 1/9/16

Storm Threat: 1/9/16

The next timeframe to watch is the 12th-13th:

Storm Threat: 1/12/16-1/13/16

Storm Threat: 1/12/16-1/13/16

Last but not least, the next timeframe potential is around the 16th-18th:

Storm Threat: 1/16/16-1/18/16

Storm Threat: 1/16/16-1/18/16

Storm Threat: 1/16/16-1/18/16

Storm Threat: 1/16/16-1/18/16

So, just keep those dates in the back of your minds, and I’ll keep you updated!

 

–Jon Rocco

Twitter: @jonathonrocco

 

 

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