Could This Weekend’s Heat Lead to a Heat Wave?

This month of July has not been terribly hot and we haven’t had a heat wave for this month just yet. Could that change, though? We will be seeing some very hot temperatures this weekend, especially with the heat indices. The big question is could this heat stay long enough for a heat wave? Well, some areas might, but I don’t think we’ll be dealing with a widespread heat wave. Most areas will experience temperatures at 90° or more for Sunday and Monday, but for a heat wave, we need temperatures in all areas to be at or above 90° on Tuesday. Unfortunately, a cold front will be the culprit of thunderstorms Monday, and all of this will cool things by a few degrees for Tuesday. However, some areas could get close to 90° on Tuesday in extreme Southern NJ. Here is the GFS 2m Temperatures over this timeframe:

GFS temperatures on Sunday

GFS temperatures on Sunday

GFS temperatures Monday

GFS temperatures Monday

GFS temperatures Tuesday

GFS temperatures Tuesday

You see temperatures in Central & Southern NJ are about 5° below 90°. However, if you go to extreme Southern NJ and Southeastern PA, temperatures get much closer to 90°. This could still change over time. Temperatures could go up, or they can go down. So we’ll just see how the weather models trend over time.

For now, we’ll stay short-term and take a look at my Heat Indices map for SATURDAY. Heat Indices will get up to 100° in some areas, but Sunday will be even hotter, possibly reaching heat indices above 100°!

Heat Indices expected for Saturday

Heat Indices expected for Saturday

Heat advisories have been issued for portions of Southwestern NJ and Southeastern PA for SUNDAY from 12PM to 6PM. I think this will most likely expand in Southern NJ and potentially into portions of Central NJ, particularly Monmouth County.

NWS Heat Advisories as of Friday evening (orange counties)

NWS Heat Advisories as of Friday evening (orange counties)

It is also important to remember your Hot Weather Safety tips!

Hot weather safety

Hot weather safety

**REMEMBER: A HEAT WAVE IS DEFINED AS 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF TEMPERATUES AT OR ABOVE 90°**

—- Jonathon Rocco (@jonathonrocco)

STAY SAFE AND STAY COOL! ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND!

Leave a Reply