Cold Front Creates Showers/Storm Chances Wednesday
Another day, another afternoon of showers and storms. The cold front out to our west on Tuesday at around 6:00 PM will finally make its way through the Northeast on Wednesday, bringing more showers and storms with it.
The chance of these showers and storms comes in the late morning hours, through the afternoon, and into the evening. Everyone should start keeping an eye to the sky and radar after about 11:00 AM, but especially after 12:00 PM on your way to lunch. Wednesday will be another repeat of Monday & Tuesday in several ways: Hazy, Hot, Humid with PM storms. However, I am thinking that, since this is a cold front, there is a better chance at a little more widespread and a better chance for everyone to see a shower and storm. Will they be severe storms? I don’t think so. The GFS CAPE values for Wednesday are only between 500-1,000. So there will be thunderstorms and some stronger ones with heavy rain, but I don’t see too much evidence to call for severe weather. (I was going to show you the NAM, but I’m having trouble viewing the CAPE values, so I will post it on twitter and update this when I’m able to).
The RPM model shows the timeline I mentioned above.
You can see the activity picks up more and more as we go through the afternoon. I was looking at the 4Km NAM compared to this, and even without a comparison, it can be seen that the 4km NAM is underdone. It was showing little to no activity on Wednesday. However, I can at least show you the WRF-NMM model.
You can see the WRF-NMM picks up the storm activity sometime in the evening continuing into the early nighttime hours.
CONCLUSION: I think the timeframe for showers and storms on Wednesday is the same as today. I think the time to watch is 11 AM-12 PM to 7-8 PM. Once again, there could be a few strong storms, but there will not be severe weather. The NWS also has us placed in a just a general risk of thunderstorms. There is no MRGL risk for severe anywhere in the Northeast. Keep an eye to the sky and the radar. Download any weather apps available and stay informed! Also stay tuned to social media because every meteorologist and future meteorologist will have weather updates to inform you throughout the day.
—– Jonathon Rocco