Bill: Father of Floods

Tropical Depression Bill has caused many flooding problems. Well, TD Bill will be headed our way, and unfortunately, just in time for Fathers’ Day. The NWS has issued a big swath of flood watches, warnings, etc.

Current NWS Flood watches/warnings/advisories

Current NWS Flood watches/warnings/advisories

 

There will also be a thunderstorm threat. Some storms may be severe. Below is the current look at the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook. There is a MRGL-SLGT risk in spots on Saturday, and a MRGL risk across most of the area on Sunday, where the main threat of very heavy rain and flooding is in the morning.

SATURDAY, JUNE 20

SATURDAY, JUNE 20

 

SUNDAY, JUNE 21

SUNDAY, JUNE 21

 

Flooding from very heavy rainfall will be the main threat. The NWS has the area in a SLGT risk of excessive rainfall causing flash flooding. This is why a Flood Watch has been issued from 8PM on Saturday until 8PM on Sunday. Some of the models have been flip-flopping with the track of the storm, but the amount of rainfall has been mostly consistent. We are really looking at rainfall amounts on the order of 1-2″, but some models point to localized areas of about 3″, which is also possible. Below are some of the model rainfall projections.

18z NAM

18z NAM

 

12z RGEM

18z RGEM

 

18z GFS

18z GFS

 

So…. that is the rainfall, but now comes the timing. I really don’t think that Fathers’ Day will be a complete washout. As of now, it looks like we are dealing with heavy rainfall Saturday night into Sunday morning. Now, some models have been going a little later in time as to when the heavy rainfall moves out. However, even when the main batch of rain moves out, there could still be some scattered showers and storms around throughout Sunday. This could still change, and the track can definitely change, so be sure to stay tuned to the latest ever changing details. When the rain moves out in the morning, do not be fooled!! Outdoor plans should be moved indoors, because some showers and storms could pop up out of nowhere sometimes. Don’t let a little “lull” in the action fool you. Below is the 4Km 18z NAM model timeline of the rain. I will only use the NAM model because I like to use short term models when it comes to timing at this point in the game.

NAM --- 9z Sunday

NAM — 9z Sunday

 

NAM --- 12z NAM

NAM — 12z Sunday

 

NAM --- 18z Sunday

NAM — 18z Sunday

 

Once again, a Flood Watch is in affect from 8PM Saturday until 8PM Sunday. Please be sure to check this website and stay tune, if possible, to social media because we will all bring you the latest updates. You can follow this blog on twitter, you can follow @NEWeatherWx, @NastoBrian, @NY_WX, and you can also follow me at @jonathonrocco, and many more weather forecasters and meteorologists to get the latest information as this forecast evolves. Stay safe and remember: Turn around, don’t drown!

 

– Jonathon Rocco

 

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