Analyzing the Potential Tropical Storm Danny
Hype has been generated recently about how models are starting to form an area of low pressure down on the eastern Gulf of Mexico that could end up coming toward the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. I don’t see it as becoming a major storm (or for that matter, much above a weak cat 1 hurricane) or a major threat to us on the East Coast. Looking at it now, the main threat is for heavy rains and maybe some strong winds. Taking a look at three major models, GFS, ECMWF, and CMC, the GFS seems the most bullish about developing this low into anything after having an area of low pressure stall out over/near Florida. After looking at the models again, the GFS HINTS at a potential tropical storm for a matter of hours. (one, 12 hour frame)
Look near the “A” in Alabama and you will see a stripe of green. Green is anything 34 knots and up, minimum threshold for a TS. The CMC model not only holds low pressure centers near Florida, but also over South Carolina and the Mississippi/Alabama border.
At this moment, the Mid-Atlantic seems to be pretty dry for a while. Between now and August 4th, not even 3/4 of an inch falls (according to the GFS.) The southeast however, is on the border of being soaked. More updates on the rain chances and amounts will probably come tomorrow.
I intended for this article to be longer, but this storm system starts developing at the end of most model runs, so details are foggy. Later on this week I will have more analysis of the model runs and will see what the NHC says about it’s development potential.